COVID-19 – we cannot ignore it III – Wyndham

Another industry hit hard by the Corona pandemic is hospitality of course. A large hotel-company might provide a good example. Although I like to travel now and then, staying in different cities, I’m not much of a business traveller. I could call myself “CEO” of this small AnRep3D Company, but the truth is that I earn my bread and butter as a management consultant, currently working for a large bank with its headquarters close to where I live. When I stay in a hotel it’s usually rather modest like the one in the picture, often family-owned. To fit in the 3D-graph with Qantas already in it, we need more like a large chain with hotels all over the world, so I started looking.

Small Hotel

Photo by Free-Photos on Pixabay

Being a hotel-illiterate as explained above, I went to a ranking-site and picked their number one: Wyndham. It was a good choice, because a lot of information is shared at the Wyndham-site. All necessary quarterly and annual reports were available, so it was easy to put the numbers in my input-file (shared again as promised).

After generating the 3D-graph, the result was a bit of a surprise. Looking at the numbers I could have known, but I prefer the 3D-graph to get a good impression. The largest hotel chain in the world turns out to be much smaller (looking at the revenue) than an airline which is not even in the top ten of the world. Qantas’ revenue is less than the revenue of number ten in airlines.Qantas and Wyndham 3D-graph

Double-clicking the screenshot will open the 3D-graph in your browser. Beware: thegraph haw so many companies that zooming out is necessary to see the whole picture! Clicking the right mouse-button and moving the mouse up and down at the same time, will zoom the graph in and out. For maniputalion of this 3D-graph: Clicking left while moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions. Double clicking in the graph translates it and readjusts the centre at the same time. Just try it – If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, refresh the page in your browser.

Yet the revenue of the world’s largest hotel-chain is still six times smaller (height of the building in the graph). Be aware that the numbers are semi-annual and the annual value for e.g. 2019 is the sum of H1 and H2. Qantas ranks high when it comes to customer satisfaction and safety, so it is well-known after all. Wyndham on the other hand is probably not as well-known as Marriott or Hilton.

It’s not only about the revenue of course as a 3D-graph shows more. The equity is more or less the same magnitude (width of the buidlings), but the liabilities (depth of the buidling) are much lower for Wyndham – less than one-third! Yet the liabilities for Wyndham and Qantas grew rapidly during H1 of 2020 whilst their equities shrunk and we shouldn’t be surprised about that.

Finally there is something special with the Wyndham cash-flow (the coloured roof of the building). Like with Qantas we expected a healthy green roof for 2019 H1 and H2, but H1 is red. For 2020 H1 it is cleary the result of the Corona-virus hitting the industry, but why 2019H1? The quarterly report shows that because of the acquisition of La Quinta, completed in 2018, provisions had to be made for upcoming tax liabilities. It is a huge amount: USD 188. Without such a provision the roof would have been green after all.

For now, don’t forget to download your free copy of AnRep3D at our website. Short tutorials, explaining different parts of AnRep3D are available at our Youtube-channel Follow @AnRep3D on Twitter, to be informed about new posts.

Photo by AllClear55 on Pixabay

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COVID-19 – we cannot ignore it II – Qantas

Let’s start with an industry which was impacted by Corona in a negative way: aviation. A typical example would be Qantas. Thinking about the right period and granularity to provide a good comparison between the normal period and the pandemic period, I noticed that Qantas publishes semi-annual reports. Three half-year periods would be good. H1 2019 was quite normal, H2 2019 held the start of the Corona-outbreak in Asia but was quite normal, but H1 2020 was a global disaster and Qantas was hit really hard.Aeroplane Qantas

Photo by skeeze on Pixabay

Because the AnRep3D-generator is freeware now, I will explain the process of the collection of data in more detail this time. Hopefully this will help you if you are a reader who wants to experiment with it.

To fetch the financial information I went to the Qantas Investor Centre and selected the semi-annual and annual reports. The balance-sheets are presenting the fixed situation at the end of the period, but the revenue and cash-flow from operating activities had to be calculated for the second half of the year by subtracting the values of the first half. Normally not a big deal, but Qantas has a broken book-year going from July 1 to June 30. As a result the first half of the year in the calendar is their second half and it took some effort to avoid confusion!

Finally I had the results, but then I realised the $ symbol in an Australian document might represent the AUD instead of the USD. In the report no currencies were explained, only some references to the conversion of USD to AUD. To be sure I went to Wikipedia, where the 2019 amounts for e.g. revenue and equity were presented with A$ in front. Then I knew I had to recalculate to USD. Using the Macrotrends site  I got the appoximate values for the middle of the periods (for Revenue and Cash Flow) and for the end of the periods (Equity and Liabiliies), allowing me to get reasonable USD values.

Qantas preparation sheet

The spreadsheet (see picture above) looked rather complicated. To the top left the (derived) half-year values in AUD were presented, with more to the right the necessary exchange-rates. To the bottom the values were transposed and calculated in USD. After adding a parameter-line to the top of the list (holding the number of companies: 1, number of periods: 3, scaling-factor: 250, additional spacing: 20, font-size:4 followed by the three labels for the legend).

This structure matched the input-file format and the whole sheet was saved as a .csv-file because I was too lazy to copy it to another tab. I just removed the irrelevant lines over the parameter-line in Notepad. As promised this time both input-file (csv – plain text) and output-file (the actual graph in HTML5 – right-click link and choose save link as) are available for download.Qantas finance in 3D

Commenting the 3D-graph is hardly necessary. The revenue dropped sharply in H1 2020 and the liabilities went up. Yet I was surprised to see the high ratio of total liabilities to equity (gearing).

I’m not an expert on finance in aviation, but the buildings look more like a bank or insurance company than a regular service-provider or manufacturer. The fact that the aeroplanes are not owned by the company, but only leased will influence the shape of the building.

For now, don’t forget to download your free copy of AnRep3D at our website. Short tutorials, explaining different parts of AnRep3D are available at our Youtube-channel Follow @AnRep3D on Twitter, to be informed about new posts.

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COVID-19 – we cannot ignore it.

The holiday-season is comming to an end and people will be online again more frequently now. Time for a new blog-post, but no 3D-graph in this one yet! With the previous series (data is the new oil) being complete, a new one will come in. Of course the (partial) lockdown is going on in several countries although this isn’t something new. The only thing is that it takes a while before the impact of this Corona-virus is visible in the quarterly reports. China was hit even before 2020, but in Europe and the USA the panedmic really started during Q1 of 2020. Now most of the reports for Q2 2020 will be available and this would be the right moment to visualise the data of a series of companies during the upcoming months.

Wearing a mask - Corona

Photo by Potsdamn (Henrik Bortels) on Pixabay

The SARS-CoV-2 virus – usually referred to as COVID-19 – is a nasty creature from a human perspective. Several Corona-viruses are travelling around the world without doing a lot of harm, but it seems like this one found a key to one of our locks and got carte-blanche. With our globalised economy it could travel rapidly and here we are with the economy being hit very hard. Yet some companies prosper in this new situation, so the series about the impact won’t show doom and gloom only. The question is how the mix should be presented. The jury is still out.

During the holidays, something really important happened to our product: the 3D-graph generator AnRep3D is freeware now, so download your free copy right away! We don’t even ask for registration, because in the end we don’t want to put any threshold in. Everybody should be able to experiment with AnRep3D without reluctance. The manual is in the package and some examples of input- and output-files (3D-graphs in HTML5-format with Javascript generated real-time in the cloud) are in.

We already provided the 3D-graphs (= output-files) with every post, but from now on, we will also add the input-files. This will help the users to experiment and understand how the generator works.

OK, we know that the upcoming posts will add companies with either a negative or a positive impact from the pandemic. Revenue and cash-flow from operating activities will be good a good combination and this time equity versus total liabilities might be another nice perspective. Very different from the traditional RPEA we used in the previous series (RPEA being short for Revenue Profit, Equity and total Assets).

Doom and Gloom

Photo by KELLEPICS (Stefan Keller) on Pixabay

To be honest, I don’t yet have a clue what the 3D-graph will look like, because a “disaster” can be something like 10% loss of revenue only, but I expect the cash-flow be hit harder. Will companies increase loans to survive? Let’s see where we will get. What I do know is that we will take examples from the industries below.

Down by Corona: Travel and Tourism, Hotels and related, Oil&Gas, Finance, Manufacturing

Up by Corona: Groceries, Online entertainment, Online vendors, Tech companies

Supermarket

Photo by ElasticComputeFarm on Pixabay

For each group we will take a representative from somewhere in the world (having standardised quarterly reports available).

For now, don’t forget to download your free copy of AnRep3D at our website.

Short tutorials, explaining different parts of AnRep3D are available at our Youtube-channel

Follow @AnRep3D on Twitter, to be informed about new posts.

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Great news – an AnRep3D-licence will be free from now on!

A short, but very important update. No 3D-graph this time (although new posts will come in soon), but only a message.

For a couple of years we have been offering the 3D-graph generator. It hasn’t been easy to inform as much people and companies as possible about our product and have them trying the product (and eventually buy a licence). Yet the number of people and companies being interested went up gradually and the stats show more and more visits to both the company-website and this blog.Freedom by Sasint

Photo by sasint on Pixabay.

Now the question was:  “will we invest in AnRep3D again and come up with a new version?” The conclusion was that we should reach a broader audience first. To be able to do so, we should make the threshold for experimenting and using our 3D-graph generator as low as possible. The best choice for now would be to make the fully functional AnRep3D-generator a free package – without limitations (except the usual ones, stated in the terms and conditions).

Go right to our website, to the licence-tab and download a package today! Everything is in, including folders with examples of output-files (.htm-files in html5 format) and related input-files so you can create these 3D-graphs again yourself an even modify them. Modifying existing input-files would be a good way to become familiar with AnRep3D-generator. The manual – also in the package – will help you to understand all the details.

We will continue to post new examples of the application of the AnRep3D-generator, but from now on we will also offer the input-files we used. This is important to help you as a user understand the background of the graphs shown in a post. Follow us on Twitter (@AnRep3D) or have a look at our website where links to the white-paper, this blog and out youtube-channel can be found. Our mail-address is also available at the website.

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Data is the new oil XIV – Undisclosed intangible assets

All the companies are in the graph now, but there was still something bothering me. The old industries have a lot of tangible assets (oil rigs, refineries, factories, inventories) and also some intangible ones (goodwill, software licences – sometimes also tangible). The new ones developed their platforms and infrasctructures but these assets were never “purchased” and therefore don’t have a fair market value. As a result these assets are not allowed to be in the balance and we end up with an “unfair market value”. Especially the new companies will miss lot of value. In Data is the new oil VIII  I spent some attention to the subject and in between I went on searching.

Photo by Marcelo Chagas from Pexels

Finally I found a company taking care of this! Brand Finance published their Global Intangible Finance Tracker (GIFT TM). In this document the “undisclosed intangible assets” are estimated and published. Although most of the traditional companies like Shell or Toyota are not mentioned, ExxonMobil and Volkswagen are in. The former is missing out some intangible assets and the equity should be about 30% higher. The latter got a negative value, leading to a reduced value!

Yet this is nothing compared to the five tech-giants actually being the top five of the list: Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet and Facebook. For those the real value of their intangible assets should be many times the value of the intangible assets in their balance-sheets!

The impact of this however, is very different for each company because of the differences in tangible assets. To obtain a more realistic balance-sheet for these five, I increased the total assets with the undisclosed intangible assets mentioned in the Brand Finance publication and subtracted the total liabilities to get the improved equity. The other companies were not changed so it’s probably not a completely fair comparison, but it illustrates the principle very well.

The new graph based on the additional information only holds one year: 2018. To see the impact of the correction, the uncorrected and corrected datasets were combined in one single graph. The uncorrected set is presented as an artificial year called “uncorrected”. The buildings for the “traditional” industries are unchanged, but the top five of the tech-giants is very different for the corrected and uncorrected row!Corrected and uncorrected values for tech-giants

Double-clicking the screenshot will open the 3D-graph in your browser. Beware: thegraph haw so many companies that zooming out is necessary to see the whole picture! Clicking the right mouse-button and moving the mouse up and down at the same time, will zoom the graph in and out. For maniputalion of this 3D-graph: Clicking left while moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions. Double clicking in the graph translates it and readjusts the centre at the same time. Just try it – If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, refresh the page in your browser.

Looking at the revenue we have to accept that the old oil-companies are still selling the new oil. When looking at the shareholder value, our only conclusion can be: “yes, data is the new oil!”

This was the last post for the series. For more background on the 3D-graph generator, download our white-paper  together with the 3D-graphs (html-format, available as zip). Or go to our website and download the free demo-package to try the 3D-graph generator yourself. New posts will be announced on Twitter: @AnRep3D and our Youtube-channel offers short explanatory movies on the 3D-graphs and the generator creating them.

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Data is the new oil XIII – Facebook is different!

Of course Facebook followed the same trend as the other tech-giants. It was small and grew to a rather large (but not extremely large) company between 2008 and 2018. The difference is that Facebook only became public in 2012. I wasn’t aware and it is funny that the last company to be added turned out to be a trouble maker. The good news is that Facebook is so famous that browsing through the internet provided some indications about the early days before the IPO. What was the revenue in 2008 was my first question and I found a rough estimate although the difference between the two sources is more than 10%.

Blonde woman with cell-phone

Photo by Quinn Kampschroer on Pixabay

One of the sources is Facebook itself and since we know how reliable the company is, we should take their figures at face value. Just joking – to be honest it doesn’t really matter for our 3D-graph whether the revenue back then was USD 230 or USD 280, so we take the latter. Then the profit for which another source was found. Of course it was the period of the Financial Crisis, so one won’t be surprised by a loss (USD 56 mln.). Yet it is the first red roof in all of our 3D-graph. At the same time the building is so tiny that nobody will notice. Then we had to find information about the total assets and the equity (or the total liabilities). This was harder, so we had to find a way to estimate the amounts. Starting with the Total Assets we had a look at the money coming in from investors. No loans but participations. The most important amounts coming in during 2008 were coming from Microsoft (USD 240 mln. ), Li Ka-Shing (2 x USD 60 mln.) and the European Founders Fund (USD 15 mln.). Let’s assume that earlier investments were burnt, because the revenue was still rather low. In total the acquired capital would have been USD 375 mln. but we already know about the loss of USD 56 mln. so let’s say USD 320 mln. was left as value (and the book-value of the self-developed software we have to ignore as we saw in a previous post).

Looking at 2013 and 2018, it seems like Facebook never had a lot of debts. Most of its money was coming from investors taking a share and the line of credit during the early life was really small. For simplicity we will consider the equity to be the same as the total assets in 2008.

Finally we could fill out the input-file and create the full graph with Facebook in it! It turns out the 2008 values are so low that we lost them in rounding and don’t see a building at all. The values are visible in the 3D-graph output-file, but they must be too small to visualise in X3DOM! As a result the only red roof we encountered is invisible after all. Indeed the 2013 values for Facebook are more like the 2008 ones for Amazon or Alphabet, because the company is just smaller.

Largest companies of the world in AnRep3D graph

Double-clicking the screenshot will open the 3D-graph in your browser. Beware: thegraph haw so many companies that zooming out is necessary to see the whole picture! Clicking the right mouse-button and moving the mouse up and down at the same time, will zoom the graph in and out. For maniputalion of this 3D-graph: Clicking left while moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions. Double clicking in the graph translates it and readjusts the centre at the same time. Just try it – If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, refresh the page in your browser.

Of course the AnRep3D-generator can create a larger graph by adjusting the scaling-parameter. Facebook in AnRep3D graphTo be able to create a useful graph, only Facebook was taken and the scaling was changed from 10,000 to 2,000. Now the rather small 2018 building is huge, the 2013 one is moderate and the one for 2008 is not invisible anymore!

Facebook in AnRep3D graph - detailZooming in on the tiny spot we we see a very small building with a red roof after all. Remember: this is the only red roof to be found in this graph. The largest companies in the world seem to be large for a reason.

 

For more background on the 3D-graph generator, download our white-paper  together with the 3D-graphs (html-format, available as zip). Or go to our website and download the free demo-package to try the 3D-graph generator yourself. New posts will be announced on Twitter: @AnRep3D and our Youtube-channel offers short explanatory movies on the 3D-graphs and the generator creating them. And of course our website anrep3d.com is still available!

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Data is the new oil XII – Microsoft: more green roofs

We are nearly at the end of the series and this time we have another runner-up. Yet in the 3D-graph Microsoft looks much smaller than the oil-majors. It grew like the other tech companies did, but not as fast as Apple or Amazon. Its revenue is smaller than Aphabet’s. The 2018 revenue is also smaller than Amazon’s but at the same time Microsoft’s revenue is larger and so is the equity. And again, all roofs are green. It means none of the companies had a loss during one of the three years shown!

Lady working in emergency call centre

Photo by Ernesto Eslava on Pixabay

In the end we might think of Microsoft and the other tech giants as incredibly large companies, but the oil-majors are still much more impressive. The question is whether the growth-rate of the the former will remain unchanged and at the same time we know fossil fules will come to an end and the oi&gas-companies have to reinvent themselves. Will solar, wind, other renewables and carriers like hydrogen be at the heart of their business? Will such a transition be enough to remain among the largest companies in the world?

Double-clicking the screenshot will open the 3D-graph in your browser. For maniputalion of this 3D-graph: Clicking the right mouse-button and moving the mouse up and down at the same time, will zoom the graph in and out.
Beware: the graph haw so many companies that zooming out first is necessary to see the whole picture! Clicking left while moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions. Double clicking in the graph translates it and readjusts the centre at the same time. Just try it – If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, refresh the page in your browser.

In the end the question is more like “will data be the new oil or will energy remain number one?” We know data-centres use a lot of energy, so the tech-giants might support the energy-companies at the same time. If new regulations come in for tech-companies, like we have seen for the financial sector, things might be very different.

For Microsoft it’s fun to see where it comes from.  The company has been around  for a while and I found a link showing the numbers for the nineties of the last century. The picture below shows a screenshot.

Microsoft finance nineties

For more background on the 3D-graph generator, download our white-paper  together with the 3D-graphs (html-format, available as zip). Or go to our website and download the free demo-package to try the 3D-graph generator yourself. New posts will be announced on Twitter: @AnRep3D and our Youtube-channel offers short explanatory movies on the 3D-graphs and the generator creating them.

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Data is the new oil XI – Alphabet: a pattern emerges

Finally another tech-giant, Alphabet. And the pattern in the tiltle? Well, the old industry is rather stable, but these new tech-companies seem to come from “nowhere” and are suddenly there – next to the oil-majors and manufacturers.

Back in 2008, when Alphabet was still called Google, the revenues were not so impressive from today’s perspective. They managed to increase it 24 times over a decade! Back in 2008, the annual report gave the amounts in thousands of dollars, but five years later it was millions already.

Then the gearing was always amazing. For some reason Google hardly has only a relatively small amount of liabilities, although the equity went down from nearly 90% of the balance-total to slighly above 75% – still impressive!

Different from other posts, we will offer you both a clickable screenshot and a movie. The screenshot shows Apple, Amazon, Samsung and Alphabet/Google and even 2008 is visible. They all have this amazing pattern of growth in all directions (revenue, equity, total assets). Largest companies visualised finances

Double-clicking the screenshot will open the 3D-graph in your browser. For maniputalion of this 3D-graph: Clicking the right mouse-button and moving the mouse up and down at the same time, will zoom the graph in and out. Clicking left while moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions. Double clicking in the graph translates it and readjusts the centre at the same time. Just try it – If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, refresh the page in your browser.

If you are not able to open the real 3D-graph or you just don’t want, you can have a look at the video below (actually an animated gif). Remarkable is that all roofs are green, meaning none of these huge companies suffered a loss in the selected years (2008, 2013, 2018).

Animation of 3D-graph

For more background on the 3D-graph generator, download our white-paper  together with the 3D-graphs (html-format, available as zip). Or go to our website and download the free demo-package to try the 3D-graph generator yourself. New posts will be announced on Twitter: @AnRep3D and our Youtube-channel offers short explanatory movies on the 3D-graphs and the generator creating them.

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Data is the new oil X – Oil again…

It will be a short update this time. After a couple of tech-related companies we are back at the oil. A “small” oil major this time as Chevron has a revenue of “only” 159 billion in 2018. It’s not little money of course, but compared to 2008 it’s only 58% of the revenue back then. It must have been a hard time for Chevron, because for Shell, BP and ExxonMobil it was 85%, 83% and 61% respectively. Looking at the equity, the picture is the other way round: 157%, 110%, 176%, 180% for Shell, BP, ExxonMobil and Chevron.

Photo by Gustavo Fring from Pexelswoman refuelling

This money can only come from either additional shares issued or profit (from operations or by e.g. selling parts of the company). Looking at the profits for 2018/2013/2008 we see Shell:6%/4%/6%, BP: 7%/7%/9%, ExxonMobil: 3%/6%/6% Chevron: 9%/10%/9% It seems they didn’t want to be the largest but the most profitable. Indeed it led to a fast growth of their equity (although dividends will eat a part of the profit and I didn’t check that part. Yet we know that e.g. Shell reduced the equity for the first time since World War II). With Chevron having the lowest 2018 revenue of the series, it was a good moment to sort the graph on this 2018 revenue as Chevron remains at the same position where an added  company will usually be: to the right.

Because the graph is broad by now, three screenshots are presented below. All three are clickable and will open the real 3D-graph in your browser (if JavaScript and WebGL are enabled that is).

Double-clicking the screenshot will open the 3D-graph in your browser. For maniputalion of this 3D-graph: Clicking the right mouse-button and moving the mouse up and down at the same time, will zoom the graph in and out. Clicking left while moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions. Double clicking in the graph translates it and readjusts the centre at the same time. Just try it – If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, refresh the page in your browser.

Below I present a picture of the numbers (including the parameter-line), so you can do the math yourself if you like.

12 3 10000 10 4 Revenue|Profit(loss) Equity Total Assets
R.D.Shell 2018 388379 23352 202534 399194
R.D.Shell 2013 451235 16271 181148 357512
R.D.Shell 2008 458361 26277 128866 282401
BP 2018 303738 9578 101548 282176
BP 2013 396217 23758 130407 305690
BP 2008 365700 21666 92109 228238
Exx.Mobil 2018 290212 20840 198528 346196
Exx.Mobil 2013 438255 32580 180495 346808
Exx.Mobil 2008 477359 45220 112965 228052
Apple 2018 265595 59531 107147 365725
Apple 2013 170910 37037 123549 207000
Apple 2008 32479 4834 21030 39572
VW 2018 264906 13650 133723 522115
VW 2013 256897 11925 122333 440671
VW 2008 178610 7459 51790 232601
Toyota 2018 258850 22785 175362 454046
Toyota 2013 222373 11520 135809 377281
Toyota 2008 262394 17146 118470 323968
Amazon 2018 232887 10073 43549 162648
Amazon 2013 74452 274 9746 40159
Amazon 2008 19166 645 2672 8314
Samsung 2018 221568 40306 225187 308448
Samsung 2013 216707 28878 142155 202857
Samsung 2008 96495 4686 46235 83771
Chevron 2018 158902 14860 155642 253863
Chevron 2013 220156 21597 150427 253753
Chevron 2008 273005 23931 86648 161165

No deep-dives this time as we are waiting for three tech-giants coming in: Alphabet, Microsoft and Facebook. Let’s see what they will bring us as revenue, profit (margin), equity, total assets (and gearing).

For more background on the 3D-graph generator, download our white-paper  together with the 3D-graphs (html-format, available as zip). Or go to our website and download the free demo-package to try the 3D-graph generator yourself. New posts will be announced on Twitter: @AnRep3D and our Youtube-channel offers short explanatory movies on the 3D-graphs and the generator creating them.

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