IPOs in 3D VI – Jumia, not UP Fintech

We still had two IPOs to go: UP Fintech and Jumia. During the collection of data it turned out that UP Fintech is… let’s say special. It seems to be a subsidiary of a company called Tiger that has been around for 25 years but was silent after 2016. Then UP Fintech’s ticker code is TIGR. Probably this is a reversed listing, but that’s not the issue. Only one quarterly report could be found (form 10Q as the registration is NASDAQ). There the total Liabilities reported are very low when compared to the total Assets. Indeed the Equity is high, but even higher than the total Assets. After some correction the Equity suddenly is negative. For me this was enough to drop this company as it seems it’s not compatible with IFRS (or US GAAP) or uses a special version I don’t know of. This means only Jumia, an African platform-company (started in Nigeria), was left in scope.Nigerian woman

Photo by gregade on Pixabay

Although Jumia is very good in burning money, the quarterly reports look much better than UP Fintech’s. But we selected them because of the change in the price of the shares. At the end of the day of the IPO the share-price was nearly twice as high as the offer price. Within a couple of weeks it was even three times this value, but then it started to drop. At this moment (start of 2020) the share-price is below six USD. Before and after the IPO losses were reported which were even higher than the revenue. Probably the investors lost their faith after hoping for a turn for the better?

It’s funny that this African company has a registration at the NYSE, but publishes quarterly reports in EUR. For me this meant the values had to be converted to USD, but because the EUR-USD exchange rate is rather stable and the period is short, so a factor 1.1 was taken for all values. Below a screenshot of the full 3D-graph for all IPOs is shown. Underneath a more detailed screenshot showing the Jumia “buildings”.

Double-clicking a screenshot will open the 3D-graph in your browser. For manipulation of this 3D-graph: Clicking the right mouse-button and moving the mouse up and down at the same time, will zoom the graph in and out. Clicking left while moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions. Double clicking in the graph translates it and readjusts the centre at the same time. Just try it – If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, refresh the page in your browser.3D-graph_IPOs Jumia

3D-graph_IPOs Jumia details

The good news is that the equity wasn’t negative before the IPO! After the IPO the situation was much better of course, although the losses keep burning money. In the 3D-graph the red roofs are showing clearly that the losses are high. Although the end of year balance for 2018 is known, we had to estimate the revenue and loss for Q4 2018 by taking the average from the cumulative 2018 Q3 value.

Here our series on IPO ends. We didn’t comment a lot on conclusions to be drawn from the 3D-graph as we leave that to you as a reader. Follow us on Twitter (@AnRep3D) or have a look at our website. There a free demo-generator can be downloaded.  It is fully functional, yet limited to one line of data (meaning that only one building will appear, representing one company in a specific year or quarter). With this generator it’s even possible to to get a free licence if you are a consumer, instead of a company – read about it on our website. For an in-depth explanation, visit our Youtube-channel. There AnRep3D is explained in a couple of short videos.

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Intermezzo – finally, a contest!

Last week I should have posted something about another IPO, but I didn’t. Somehow the pattern became too clear, although I will investigate the others on the list. Apart from this I was on holiday and to be honest, I spent my time thinking about AnRep3D’s business-model. It’s a simple model: we offer companies a licence for a one-off payment. For now that’s still the plan.

At the same time the idea was to have some kind of contest. The question was what the award would be: a free licence seemed a good option, but how many? And for what period would the contest run?

Boats sailingPhoto by skeeze on Pixabay

Then I realised that only individuals will use the generator, as companies are just a group of individuals. The problem was that such a single person would be a “consumer” and we don’t sell to consumers.  After a while I understood that it is safe to offer such a consumer a generator in return for a creative idea (without paying with money that is). Probably not a real contest, as both the best and the worst will be rewarded equally. Yet it is a good way to challenge people (companies can hardly be challenged).

It means that we are asking people to submit a creative idea by email. Then we will send back an AnRep3D-generator with a special (individual) “contest” licence, which is safe as it’s not a company-version. Technically there will be no difference, but it will be limited to “personal” and “non-commercial” usage. Sure, some abuse will happen but would these companies have paid for a licence in the first place?

During the next period the AnRep3D website will be updated. Apart from ordering a company-licence, now it will also be possible to send an original 3D-graph – created with the help of the free demo-version (no registration needed!). A free AnRep3D-generator (coming with examples of input- and output-files and a manual) under a personal “contest” licence will be returned! This technically unlimited generator can be used freely, but cannot be applied in a commercial setting.

You will wonder: what’s in it for AnRep3D? Well, it’s all about the wisdom of the crowd! It is hard to come up with creative ideas for the application of the AnRep3D-generator again and again. Apart from this we will probably not be able to escape from our own tunnel-vision.

For those who cannot wait until everything is explained on the AnRep3D-website, we provide an overview of the steps needed to obtain such a free personal licence for the AnRep3D-generator as explained above:

  • Download the free demo-package.
  • Think of a creative application of this generator.
  • Expertiment with the examples, to get familiar with the demo-set.
  • Prepare a data-set reflecting your creative idea.
  • Generate a 3D-graph (.htm-file).
  • Send the .htm-file by email to info@anrep3d.com mentioning “AnRep3D-contest” in the subject-line. Don’t forget to write that you were authorised to use the data visualised in this 3D-graph by using this sentence: “I only used source-data either owned by me or for which I had the permission to use them”.
  • You remain the owner of the data and the graph, but by submitting you allow AnRep3D to show your graph in public.
  • We will send you a free personal licence of the ful AnRep3D-generator. Your email-address will be stored in our database for one year.

The contest will run until we decide to terminate is. For now no end-date is set. If an end-date is set, it will be communicated a couple of weeks in advance.

To provide you with some examples, three 3D-graphs were created with the help of the free demo-generator. The first one shows the traditional Annual Revenue/Profit, Equity and Total Assets for Volkswagen. Volkswagen finance in 3D

Then another one is on a quarterly level for Amazon. It shows Revenue/Cash Flow from Operations, Current Assets and Current Liabilities. Amazon finance in 3D

The third one is about energy and shows the energy consumption per capita in the United States of America in three categories: renewables (of which the green part is waste and biobased), nuclear and fossil (all expressed in GigaJoules).Energy USA in 3D

Hint: similar graphs can be found in previous posts. There you will be able to see the real 3D-graph (.htm-file) instead of a gif. Of course you can also start immediately, feeding your own data into the free demo-generator.

Follow us on Twitter if you want to know about new posts: @AnRep3D For more information about the AnRep3D-geneator, please have a look at our website. There the free demo-package can be downloaded. It is fully functional, yet limited to one line of data (meaning that only one building will appear, representing one company in a specific year or quarter). With the contest-licence, you will be able to generate a large graph with several companies and years, like the one shown in the screenshot below. Full license 3D graph

For an in-depth explanation, visit out Youtube-channel. There AnRep3D is explained in a couple of short videos.

Take your chance and good luck!

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IPOs in 3D V – ShockWave Medical: a promising one?

Time for a positive one! When I selected some of the IPOs with very high positive or negative returns,  Shockwave Medical showed a stock-price of nearly 90% above the original pricing. Today, checking at IPOScoop again, it is even 130% !

The question is, do we see something different in the quarterly numbers of companies with an (high) positive and negative return, or is it something else “out there” determining these results? The information about the company in general is available here.

Chemist doing research

Photo by geralt on Pixabay

Again, we had to estimate the Q4 2018 number. Dividing the 9-month results from January to September 2018 (available in the Q3 2019) by three, we got an artificial revenue and profit, although the number are very different throughout the quarters. For transparency I provide the links to my sources for Q1, Q2 and Q3 2019

Showing the 3D-graph, a very obvious pattern comes up. The early quarter, before the IPO, shows a negative equity and after the IPO there is suddenly a lot of money. The shape of the building changes dramatically when it comes to the top-view. Revenue and Profit do not always change a lot and it seems its more about the promiss as Shockwave Medical shows huge losses – before and after the IPO.  Data Mining could bring up a predicting value, but it’s good to have some visuals first. That’s why we refer to AnRep3D as “Visual Mining”.ShockWave Medical added to 3D-graph

Double-clicking the screenshot will open the 3D-graph in your browser. For maniputalion of this 3D-graph: Clicking the right mouse-button and moving the mouse up and down at the same time, will zoom the graph in and out. Clicking left while moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions. Double clicking in the graph translates it and readjusts the centre at the same time. Just try it – If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, refresh the page in your browser.

Follow us on Twitter if you want to know about new posts: @AnRep3D For more information about the AnRep3D-geneator, please have a look at our website. A free demo can be downloaded there as well.  It is fully functional, yet limited to one line of data (meaning that only one building will appear, representing one company in a specific year or quarter). For an in-depth explanation, visit our Youtube-channel. There AnRep3D is explained in a couple of short videos.

Looking forward to your comments!

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IPOs in 3D IV – Zoom Video Communications

Originally this would have been a post on Sundial Growers. It seemed to be another case of bad luck as per today the return on the IPO-price is even worse than -70%, so pretty much the same as Sonim. However, no serious financial reports could be found. Neither a form 10K nor a 10Q was available. Looking at the dates it turned out that I was fooled by the American habit of putting day and month in an illogical order not going from detailed to less detailed or the other way round, but putting the month before the day. My Excel couldn’t deal with it and messed up all the dates. This means that my selection probably isn’t about listings from the start of 2019 at all. I will have to check again. Looking at the lack of financial information I encountered earlier, it would have been better to take IPOs from 2018 anyway. I will reconsider the next time. Yet this means I had to move from a disappointing IPO to a very promising one:  Zoom Video Communications.

Video conference - two women

Photo by Free-Photos on Pixabay

Again it was hard to get information about Q4 2018 and Q3 2019 is not available yet. The company seems to have a broken book-year, as it starts only at the end of January. With the same tricks as in previous posts I derived an average for revenue and profit for Q4 2018, although I had both annual data and data for H1 suggesting that Q4 actually was worse than the average. As the annual numbers were not confirmed, I stuck with the average approach.

The balance for Q4 2018 is known from the quarterly overview for Q1. Before the IPO the equity was negative and now we know this will show in the graph as a hollow, blackish “building”. For this company it seems the IPO came in time as well, as their balance-sheet is much healthier now!Three IPOs in 3D-graph

Double-clicking the screenshot will open the 3D-graph in your browser. For maniputalion of this 3D-graph: Clicking the right mouse-button, moving the mouse up and down will zoom the graph in and out. Clicking left and moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions (or move the observer’s viewpoint around a fixed graph – it’s relative of course). Double clicking in the graph translates it and moves the centre at the same time. As a result the way the graph tilts will change. Just try it. If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, just refresh the graph.

If you want to know more about the AnRep3D-geneator, please have a look at our website or visit our youtube-channel, showing all details of AnRep3D in short videos of a couple of minutes.

Do you want to try it yourself? There is a free demo-version of the AnRep3D-generator. It’s fully functional, yet limited to one line of data (meaning that only one building will appear, representing one company in a specific year or quarter). You don’t even have to give us your email-address to be able to download a free demo, since we believe that the true visionairies will ask for a licence anyway. Of course you can follow us on Twitter: @AnRep3D where new posts will be announced.

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IPOs in 3D III – Beyond Meat

When I selected the interesting IPOs, I knew I would encounter surprises. Nothing was checked in advance to be able to tell a smooth story. I just went step by step. This time there was a surprise indeed, or actually two.

Girl at seashore

Photo by loilamtan on Pixabay

Beyond Meat, the IPO with a very high return on its shares had a negative equity! Earlier, I already encountered negative equity (meaning that the Total Liabilities are higher than the Total Assets and if such a firm would be liquidated, a debt would remain). Because I thought AnRep3D would not be able to handle this, I kept those (rare) cases out.

This time I had no choice, so during the preparation of this post (mostly while brushing my teeth and shaving) I was thinking about a solution. For now I decided it for now it would be best to just set the negative equity to zero. The next step could be to change the colour of the whole building to e.g. blue, just like a green roof changes to a red one when the profit is negative (usually referred to as a loss). This can be done manually, but it should be a part of the generator, of course.

Then another surprise came in. I prepared my input-file during the evening and put the negative equity in without thinking. Today I forgot about the negative equity and generated the 3D-graph. To my surprise the AnRep3D-generator was quite able to deal with a negative equity after all. The “buildings” with a negative equity somehow became transparent. From some angles they are black, as if they don’t really exist. From other angles the loss (red roof) is visible.

Negative Equity in 3D

I decided to create the other graph, with the negative equity set to zero as well and present both versions this time.

Double click a screenshot to open the real 3D-graph first and manipulate its position: Clicking the right mouse-button, moving the mouse up and down will zoom the graph in and out. Clicking left and moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions (or move the observer’s viewpoint around a fixed graph – it’s relative of course). Double clicking in the graph translates it and moves the centre at the same time. As a result the way the graph tilts will change. Just try it. If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, just refresh the graph.

Somin and Beyond Meat

Again I could not get hold of a form 10Q for Q4 2018 for Beyond Meat, so I did the same as last time for Sonim: I took the Annual Report (form 10K) 2018. Equity and Total Assets are OK since those values represent the end of December. For Revenue and Profit I divided the annual total by four. Because of this the “2018 Q4” label is still presented with quotes.

Fortunately the IPO went well for Beyond Meat – and also for the buyers of the shares. At this moment the return is still nearly 230 percent, although most of the increase was already observed at the closing of the day of the IPO.

Looking at the graph we see a lot of red roofs, for both Sonim and Beyond Meat. Only Sonim managed to show a real profit in 2018, before the IPO. It is presented as the Q4-value in the graph, but we cannot be sure about it, as it’s the quarterly average for 2018, presented as the Q4-value.

If you want to know more about the AnRep3D-geneator, please have a look at our website or visit our youtube-channel, showing all details of AnRep3D in short videos of a couple of minutes. Do you want to try it yourself? There is a free demo-version of the AnRep3D-generator. It’s fully functional, yet limited to one line of data (meaning that only one building will appear, representing one company in a specific year or quarter). You don’t even have to give us your email-address to be able to download a free demo, since we believe that the true visionairy will ask for a licence anyway.

Of course you can follow us on Twitter: @AnRep3D where new posts will be announced.

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IPOs in 3D – a steep drop for Sonim

In the overview of 2019 IPOs we saw some with a very high return, like Beyond Meat, but also disappointing ones with a negative return. Sonim was the most unfortunate one in the list. The information was taken from IPOScoop and of course I checked if it’s still the same. It is: nearly three quarters of the IPO end of day position was lost for Sonim (ticker SONM), the manufacturer of heavy duty phones. Sonim is a well-established company with a much longer track record than some of the other companies in the IPO-list. It was founded in 1999 (20 years before the IPO) and the current CEO started in 2004. One of the co-founders is still a member of the board of directors.

Abyss

Photo by Alexas_Fotos on Pixabay.

The IPO was in May and financial statements for Q1 and Q2 are available, but Q3 not yet. For a quarterly comparison it would be nice to have information about Q4 2018 as well, but it isn’t. Of course the balance at the end of 2018 will be the same, so the only issue is with Revenue & Profit and therefore I took the average, being the annual results divided by four. This leaves us with three quarters and for those we can come up with a 3D-graph. During the next period, when we are adding other IPOs from the list, another quarter for Sonim will be available and added.

We don’t analyse or advise, but only visualise. There is information on Sonim’s disappointing stock-price, e.g. by NASDAQ and Benzinga. Be aware that these articles are from September and the price of Sonim-shares went further down during the month after.

The graph, showing the three quarters (including Q4 2018, showing the average quarterly revenue and profit for 2018) is interesting.

3D-graph of Sonim-quarterly financial figures

 

 

The shape for 2018 looks rather healthy, although the equity is a little bit low (high gearing) and the net profit rather thin. Q1 2019 is a different story. The huge loss ate almost all of the equity and it’s good that the IPO was coming up to boost it again. Buyers must have been confident in the quarter after, because the shares were sold at the planned price and even went up intil mid-June. Then a gradual decrease can be observed. After a second quarter with higher revenues but still an impressive loss, the price didn’t go up again.

That’s it for now. The next time it would be good to have an example from the IPOs with an extreme increase of the value of their shares. If you want to know more about the AnRep3D-geneator, please have a look at our website or visit our youtube-channel, showing all details of AnRep3D in short videos of a couple of minutes.

Do you want to try it yourself? There is a free demo-version of the AnRep3D-generator.  It’s fully functional, yet limited to one line of data (meaning that only one building will appear, representing one company in a specific year or quarter). You don’t even have to give us your email-address to be able to download a free demo, since we believe that the true visionary will ask for a licence anyway. Of course you can follow us on Twitter: @AnRep3D where new posts will be announced.

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Initial Public Offerings in 3D

Probably nobody ever says “Initial Public Offering” but for a title “IPO” would be a bit short, so I decided to use the full description instead of the abbreviation.

This post is about preparing the next graph. Because of this no graph is available yet. It will come in a next post as this really is an adventure and I don’t know the results at all. Of course in the end a graph will appear, but I don’t know that will be in it exactly, except that it will be about finance.

Last week I was thinking about another interesting subject for a new post and I then a couple of IPOs discussed during the year came to my mind. I wondered how to get a good overview of recent IPOs and fortunately I found a nice site with a lot of information called IPOScoop.

CatwalkPhoto by AhmadArdity on Pixabay

There I selected the most recent 100 at this moment in time – all in 2019 (between the 14th of February and 3rd of October). That’s not a well-chosen threshold, but I expected to be enough interesting cases to be found in a set of one hundred. I started reading about a couple of them, suddenly realising it would take ages to go forward like that. A good set of thresholds for different values would allow me to weed out a couple of companies immediately and getting some numbers for the remaining group. Then an additional set of thresholds on the properties of the survivors (in my selection that is) would allow me to select an interesting set.

Which choices did I make? Well, the first one was simple. I took the companies with the most extreme changes in the value of their stocks. IPOScoop presents a “return” based on the current value of a share and the price at the end of the day of the IPO. I selected a group with a very negative return (< -40% or below) or a very positive one (> 60%). These values reflect more or less whether the people like the shares and it’s similar to a fashion show, with the companies on the catwalk.

My range is an asymmetrical one because the final was unbalanced at first. Because of this I had to adjust my original (absolute) values of 50% at both sides. Then other criteria were chosen, to pick the most interesting ones:

  • The company should be founded in or before 2015, to have a reasonable period to investigate the financial data. The very young ones could show one-off results.
  • The number of employees should be 100 or higher. With a lower number the impact of employees coming and leaving would be too substantial, although the threshold is arbitrary.
  • The revenue should be 10 million USD at least. Originally I took out the ones without revenue. No profit or a loss is fine, but no revenue is a bit tricky to show in a graph. Later I raised the bar a bit and added another one:
  • The revenue had to be below 1000 MM$ to get a balanced graph.

The original set had a top 15 and bottom 15. The screenshot is not clickable, but you can easily reproduce the selection. After the adjustments and additional selections only a bottom four and a top fiver remained (from the “return” perspective as explained above).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The remaining set is shown below. I put in all the hyperlinks for their IPOScoop-page:

Sonim Technologies (SONM) Telecommunications

Sundial Growers (SNDL) Health Care

UP Fintech Holding Limited (TIGR) Financials

Jumia (JMIA) Consumer Goods

InMode Ltd. (INMD) Technology

CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) Technology

ShockWave Medical (SWAV) Health Care

Zoom Video Communications (ZM) Technology

Beyond Meat (BYND) Consumer Goods

Next time this set will be investigated more thoroughly. There will be some interesting financial data to work with and those will be visualised in a 3D-graph. Of course it will be generated with the help of the AnRep3D-generator.

If you are impatient, you can fetch the company-figures yourself and put them in the free demo-version of the AnRep3D-generator. It’s fully functional, yet limited to one line of data (meaning that only one building will appear, representing one company in a specific year or quarter). You don’t even have to give us your email-address to be able to download a free demo, since we believe that the true visionairs will ask for a licence anyway.

If you don’t know about the 3D-graphs yet, please have a look at our youtube-channel, showing all details of AnRep3D in short videos of a couple of minutes. And of course you can visit our website and follow us on Twitter: @AnRep3D

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