Let’s step back to see where we are

For several months I’ve been presenting examples of all kinds of 3D-graphs, generated with the AnRep3D tool. AnRep3D is the name of both our new company and its first product. Actually an abbreviation of Annual Reports shown in 3D-graphs.

Why should we present data from annual reports in a graph? Well, looking at one single annual report is easy. There is assets, liabilities and equity in the balance sheet and from this e.g. the gearing will be clear. And then we have to look at revenue, profit (or loss). It could be the net margin, the gross margin, the EBIT, EBITDA or something else, but we want to know the return on assets or the return on equity. For most investors the “new economy”, looking at burn-rates and being happy with heavy losses is over. Unless they go short on the shares of a company of course. And sometimes, there is the promise of a bright future, of course.

The problem is to fit all the numbers in one simple overview. A series of numbers or a couple of bars in a graph could do, but what if we want to track the company over a longer period? Or worse: if we want to compare two or three companies over a series of years?

That’s where we thought the third dimension would help us. Put the different values in different dimensions and present them as a kind of box. One for every company and every year. So for five companies over three years, we would get fifteen cubes – or “buildings” as we call them because they have a coloured roof, presenting profit (green) or loss (red). Below an example of such a 3D-graph with five companies in two years.

Eon shrankDouble-click the screenshot to see the live 3D-graph in your browser. For manipulation: Clicking the right mouse-button, moving the mouse up and down will zoom the graph in and out. Clicking left and moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions (or move the observer’s viewpoint around a fixed graph – it’s relative of course). Double clicking in the graph translates it and moves the centre at the same time. As a result the way the graph tilts will change. Just try it. If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, just refresh the graph.

To be able to present such a powerful overview, I had to find a solution and at first I used the language well-know in the world of VR (Virtual Reality): VRML. It is powerful indeed, but to view the graphs, people need to install a browser-plugin or viewer – and they just don’t. I moved on and decided WebGL (in HTML5) would be the best option. We had to drop the stereoscopic view for now, but now everybody can watch the 3D-graphs in a browser (although WebGL and Java have to be enabled in the browser, that’s true).

After this I started all over again and created the new generator. To let people experience the power of AnRep3D without paying anything, the free demo was developed. It’s fully functional (including the complete manual), but it only presents one building: one company in one year. That’s enough to understand the principle of our 3D-graphs and play with them.

If you are interested in AnRep3D, what should you do? Have a look at previous posts in this blog. Some present 3D-graphs create by the free demo. Others present 3D-graphs created with the fully functional AnRep3D-generator. Most of the screenshots are clickable, and will show the real 3D-graph after double clicking, like the example above.

The next step would be to download the free demo-generator and work with it yourself.

The third step is the one we like the most: contact info@anrep3d.com and get your own licence for the fully functional generator. For now it’s only EUR 400 without VAT (if applicable at all), without any additional charges! Of course this is only a limited offer, but it will be valid during 2018Q1. Good luck! I hope you will understand the power of AnRep3D.

By the way: of course the 3D-graphs can be used for other purposes. In a couple of posts I visualised energy-consumption, using the same graphs (part I, part II, part III and part IV). If you have a very good idea, please tell us about it before the end of March 2018 via info@anrep3d.com The most creative idea will be rewarded with a free AnRep3D-licence and we will mention them in this blog.

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Same companies, different 3D-graphs: GSK and AstraZeneca revisited.

Last time a mix of companies was presented, taken from another blog, offering a selection that inspired me. In the 3D-graph, the giant BP made the two pharmaceuticals look like dwarfs. So I decided to have another look.

This time however, I won’t stick to the usual RPEA sequence (Revenue, Profit, Equity, Assets), which is the standard for AnRep3D. Although we had to pick some standards for the manual, all kinds of values are allowed (remember I visualised the energy-usage of countries in AnRep3D graphs!).

For the first value I used the raw sales/turnover and instead of the net profit after tax, I took the gross margin (sales minus cost of sales).  (Total) Assets were replaced by (Total) Liabilities and Equity remains the same. Liabilities will be presented as a positive amount.

To obtain the numbers I went back to the annual reports 2016 and saw they presented 2014, 2015 and 2016. Only for GSK’s 2014 balance I had to look at their 2014 Annual Report as well. To illustrate how values look in the Anual Report, I present a small screenshot of the Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK) Annual Report (some empty space removed between text and numbers).

Piece of Annual Report 2016 GSK

Because the values are in GBP (GSK) and USD (AstraZeneca), I converted them to EUR first. All GBP or all USD would have been fine, but as our company is in Europe I refer EUR. For the Profit & Loss I took a weighted average of the exchange-rates for every year and for the balance I took the exchange-rate at the end of the year. The used exchange-rates for the calculations were derived from http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=2Y# again, like last time. The resulting table is shown below.

Exchange-rates used

This time I didn’t export my Excel to a .csv, but copied the values into Notepad directly and rounded the numbers (still millions of EUR, but not relevant in comparison). Two companies and three years should be mentioned in the parameter-line, then a scaling of 1000, 20% extra spacing and font-size 4. The input-file is shown below (as a screenshot – mail me at info@anrep3d.com anrep3d@gmail.com for the real values).

GSK-AstraZeneca input

In the end the result is a 3D-graph, of course. To be honest I messed up a couple of times at first. I got this very strange graph and discovered I had left the minus-signs in for the Liabilities (only profit can be negative, as it will be subtracted from the revenue to create the graph). After removing the minus-signs, the graph looked normal but wasn’t completely right as I had mentioned 3 companies and 2 years in the parameter-line. The third attempt was not really wrong, but I had switched equity and liabilities and as a result the graph cannot be viewed easily as the buildings will be rather broad. It’s better to have the smaller value (equity) to determine the width. Finally a nice graph came up and shows the (financial) differences between the two pharmaceuticals clearly. By the way: the errors were not really annoying as a graph is generated within seconds and adjusting the input-file is easy. About a minute after the first attempt the right graph was available! Below a screenshot is presented. Double-click to view the real 3D-graph in your browser.

GSK AstraZeneca 2014 2015 2016

Remember: clicking the right mouse-button, moving the mouse up and down will zoom the graph in and out. Clicking left and moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions (or move the observer’s viewpoint around a fixed graph – it’s relative of course). Double clicking in the graph translates it and moves the centre at the same time. As a result the way the graph tilts will change. Just try it. If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, just refresh the graph.

From this angle the ratios of revenue (building heigth) to equity (width) and gross margin (green top) to equity are clearly visible. For AstraZeneca the gross margin is a higher percentage of the total sales (height of building) and it became better through the years (this time 2016 is to the rear). Compared to the equity however, GSK has a higher ratio for both sales and gross margin.

When we tilt the graph, we can look at the bottoms. This time they show the real gearing:  the liabilities (building dGSK AstraZeneca 2014 2015 2016 bottomepth) to equity (width) ratio. In 2016 the gearing was higher for both companies, although it was always higher for GSK. Different financial strategies, it seems. It’s up to you to draw conclusions from the graphs. We only provide a tool to visualise financial properties for different companies over the years. If you like the tool, please have a look at https://anrep3d.com and download the free demo (no registration needed!). Or contact us directly at info@anrep3d.com or anrep3d@gmail.com for information or a full license.

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Dangerous stocks? How do these companies look in an AnRep3D-graph?

For a couple of weeks we have been working with the free demo-generator, to show that it offers real added value, although less than the full version of course. Now let’s go back to the real generator, to show it’s power again. In an earlier post I provided a link to a site with a warning about dangerous stocks.
https://investorplace.com/2016/12/10-dangerous-high-yield-dividend-stocks-to-avoid/view-all/#.WdoLijtpFdg They have their own reasons to avoid those companies, but we are interested in their generic health, to be judged by their profit (absolute and relative) and their gearing. From the list I picked a couple we know rather well in Europe: BP, GSK, AstraZeneca, Ericsson and Telefónica Then I took their 2016 annual reports and extracted the relevant values (for AnRep3D, that is) for both 2016 and 2015. The links used to get the Annual Reports are shown below:
– BP  https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/investors/bp-annual-report-and-form-20f-2016.pdf (remember a significant event with a huge impact: the Gulf of Mexico oil spill) Values are in USD, so I converted them using an average value of  USD 1 -> EUR 0.91 with the help of   http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=EUR&view=2Y#– GSK  https://www.gsk.com/media/3609/annual-report-2016.pdf These values are in GBP and the average exhange rate used was GBP 1 -> EUR 1.21, based on: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=2Y#– AstraZeneca https://www.astrazeneca.com/investor-relations/annual-reports/annual-report-2016.html Again USD 1 -> EUR 0.91 using the same link as with BP.
– Ericsson  https://www.ericsson.com/assets/local/investors/documents/2016/ericsson-annual-report-2016-en.pdf This company is Swedish and reports in Swedish crowns. SEK 1-> EUR 0.105 (average): http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=SEK&to=EUR&view=2Y#–  Telefónica  https://www.telefonica.com/documents/153952/13347920/Consolidated_Annual_Accounts_2016.pdf/dc4fed73-51c2-433a-95d0-ef16910abbe9  is a Spanish company and reports in EUR, so no conversion.

Taking revenue (sales), net profit after tax, equity and total assets in EUR, I got an input-file as shown below. Remember, the first line is the parameter-line with the number of companies, years for every company, scaling factor (divide by 2000), extra space 20% and font-size 4.Input BP GSK AstraZeneca Ericsson Telefónica

All the other lines hold the (converted to EUR) values from the annual reports. Generating the spatial (3D) graph, what do we see? Below is a screenshot – click it to view the real html-graph in your browser. This graph was generated in a couple of seconds from the input-file shown above!

3D graph front viewFirst a warning: the volume is not showing the relative size of the companies. Every dimension is on its own, although the ratios do have a meaning for every company. Having said so, we still can see that the “pharma giants” look more like dwarfs in comparison to British Petroleum (BP). The energy-company shows a revenue which is at least five times higer. Yet BP’s profit – the green roof – is litterally very thin! Hardly any profit at all and the year before BP suffered a massive loss (red roof). The impact of the oil spill was important of course. Zooming in (click on the screenshot to open the real 3D graph in your bowser – WebGL and Java should be active), the smaller blocks can be inspected more closely.

Remember: clicking the right mouse-button, moving the mouse up and down will zoom the graph in and out. Clicking left and moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions (or move the observer’s viewpoint around a fixed graph – it’s relative of course). Double clicking in the graph translates it and moves the centre at the same time. As a result the way the graph tilts will change. Just try it. If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, just refresh the graph.

Looking from below we can see the “gearing”, because it is the ratio of total assets (depth) minus equity (width) to the equity (again: width). Of course we could replace the “total assets” with the “total liabilities” in the input-file to see the gearing even more directly. That’s a choice AnRep3D allows. GSK has a higher gearing than AstraZeneca and in 2016 (front) it’s even higher than in 2015 (rear). Ericsson, on the other hand, has a very low gearing as its bottom is, although not completely, close to a square.

3D graph bottom and oblique view

From the side, the Asset Turnover can be observed, as it is the ratio of height and depth of the “building”. Finally, the green area in the front-view (to the top), shows the return on equity. It’s quite impressive for AstraZeneca! Other observations can be made if the input is chosen differently as well. We already mentioned total liabilities instead of total assets and instead of profit, we could also take gross margin or EDITDA. It depends on what will be the most informative set for a special occasion.

This time we used the full version of the AnRep3D generator again. It’s neither expensive, nor free. If you want to try and work with the software, just go to https://anrep3d.com and download the free demo package (menu: demo). If you are already convinced, just contact us using info@anrep3d.com to obtain a full license.

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Using the free AnRep3D demo-generator: more steel!

Let’s get to the point very quickly this week. Last week I put a step aside and presented Kobe Steel. Two weeks ago I provided some links to sites talking about specific companies. One of those links was https://investorplace.com/2016/12/the-7-worst-stocks-to-buy-for-2017/  I realised two of the seven companies discussed there were steel-companies, just like Kobe-steel. So a good chance to move to the promised set and create graphs for two companies, allowing us to compare three as they are all about steel. The Annual Reports (2016) I found at:

http://ir.aksteel.com/getattachment/3f28dd55-5556-4125-b2fa-600782ff34c6/2016-Annual-Report and https://www.ussteel.com/sites/default/files/annual_reports/USS%20Form%2010-K%20-%202016.pdf

For US-Steel  the values I took I used their own overview at page 59: Revenue: $ 10261 MM Loss $ – 440 MM Equity $ 2274 MM Assets  $ 9160 MM

For AK-Steel  I had to sum numbers as their presentation is a little bit different from US-Steel, so I added their non-operational income to the operational part (please check because – as stated before – I’m merely demonstrating the power of AnRep3D, not analysing companies. I am certainly not providing advice, except that in my opinion it would be good to purchase an AnRep3D full license): Revenue  $ 6010 MM Profit  $  115.9 MM Equity $  90.7  Assets  $ 4036 MM

Putting the numbers into two different input-files (remember, the free demo-generator will only process one company a time) and feeding them to the generator we get two 3D graphs. The first graph for AK-Steel looked tiny because I took the same scaling as used for Kobe and US-Steel. With the second attempt the scaling (“shrink factor” reducing the large amounts) was set to 250 instead of 500 keeping the numbers twice as high this time. The two input-files looked like this:

Input-files AK and US Steel

The two graphs with Kobe-Steel next to them provide a nice series!AK-SteelUS-Steel   Kobe Steel

Clicking on the image will start the real 3D graph in your default browser (both Javascript and WebGL should be enabled – if you donn’t trust the connection, download the .htm file first, using right-click. Have a look at the file and start it locally by double clicking it in Windows Explorer). The 3D-graph can be manipulated in real-time: clicking left and moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions. Double clicking in the graph translates it and moves the centre at the same time. Just try it. If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, just refresh the browser window.

It is clear that US-Steel (USA) and Kobe-Steel (Japan) are rather similar, although US-steel shows a larger (relative) loss and low equity compared to the total assets (so the gearing is high) AK_Steel (USA) however,  looks very different in two ways: its equity is very low compared to the total assets (high gearing – this is why the graph looks like a sheet of steel) and it shows a profit instead of a loss. No conclusions, just visualisation!

I hope this is another valid demonstration of the power of AnRep3D. And this is only about the free demo-generator, not the full version coming with a license. This version is able to compare a series of companies over a range of years. Of coure a picture will say more than a thousand words, so I provide you wit a screenshot (no 3D graph available this time) of such a complex graph. Visit https://AnRep3D.com for more information.

Full license 3D graph

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Another step aside: Kobe Steel

This post should be about one of the companies from the list I presented last time. Yet I will pick another one for the second time. On the list (actually a collection of links presenting lists) two steel companies will be found, but not Kobe Steel. This companies has been in the news several times because of quality issues. We can only guess why employees tampered with the numbers but we can show the healthiness of Kobe Steel by presenting numbers from the annual report in a typical AnRep3D spatial graph. The annual report for 2017 is available at: http://www.kobelco.co.jp/english/ir/library/annualreport/2017annual/__icsFiles/metafile/2017/08/24/annualreport_2017.pdf It seems to be early to have an annual report for a year even not finished, but their book-year only holds the first quarter of 2017 as the other three are of 2016.

Total sales is $15,116 MM. It’s without extraordinary income being $72.575 MM so the total revenue would be $15,189 MM or about 15 billion dollars. The costs of sales are very high and then the other costs will nearly consume the remainder, leaving only a small amount of margin before taxes. And although there even is some net attribution from subsidiaries, the result after taxes is still a loss: $ -205.411 MM  The total assets are : $20,594 MM and Equity is $6,092 MM. Let’s put those values into an input-file for the free AnRep3D demo-generator:

Kobe Steel input

 

Remember (or read in the manual) that the first line is the parameter-line. It starts with the number of companies and the number of years (we can enter any value in the demo, e.g. 10,10 but as it only reads one single line of data the effect will be 1,1 so that’s what is shown here. The licensed full version will accept a large number of companies and years). After those first values the scaling-factor is provided. Here we divided all values by 500 to get values roughly between 1 and 100 which will provide a normal graph. Then the extra space between the buildings is mentioned but this is useless for the demo-generator as it only offers one single “building”. Finally the value for the font-size is entered. The second line holds the name of Kobe Steel and the year of the annual report, followed by revenue, profit,  equity and total assets.

The result looks like this (the 3D-graph was turned around before taking a screenshot to have a better view):

Kobe SteelA rather normal company with a small loss. Maybe the forged quality-numbers increased the sales a little bit or lowered the costs but the scandal it caused will cost much, much more! Manufacturing is difficult and a lot of capital is needed to get the factories going.

Clicking the image will start the real 3D graph in your default browser (both Javascript and WebGL should be enabled). If you don’t trust the connection, download the .htm file first, using right-click. Have a look at the file and start it locally by double clicking it in Windows Explorer. The 3D-graphs can be manipulated in real-time: clicking left and moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions (or move the observer’s viewpoint around a fixed graph – it’s relative of course). Double clicking in the graph translates it and moves the centre at the same time. As a result the way the graph tilts will change. Just try it. If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, just refresh the graph.

Philips 2016The same applies to Philips and it shows more or less the same ratios although there is a profit. Yet Kobe Steel doesn’t look like a company fighting for its life, seeing no other way out than selling a lower quality of steel and other metals!

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Using the demo-generator: shares with advice (+ or -) and BP

For the next posts and graphs, to be presented during the upcoming weeks, we will go with some positive and negative advices to be found on the Internet. I prepared a couple and will present the most relevant financial values from their annual reports in AnRep3D graphs.

https://investorplace.com/2016/12/10-dangerous-high-yield-dividend-stocks-to-avoid/view-all/#.WdoLijtpFdg mentions some high yield stocks to avoid and among them are: BP, GSK, AstraZeneca, Ericsson and Telefónica. We will use their 2016 annual reports.

https://investorplace.com/2016/12/the-7-worst-stocks-to-buy-for-2017/ presents the worst stocks to invest for 2017: US Steel, AK steel, Wells Fargo, Amazon and Facebook will be reviewed but Tesla Motors was already in one of the earlier blogposts. Of course we don’t know about 2017 yet, but we can go for 2016. The first half of 2017 would be an option, but with only half a year of profit it’s not a fair comparison.

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/426614/15-top-stocks-first-half-2017 Talks about shares being the best for the first half of 2017. Too late to be bought now, but let’s have a look at their AnRep3D properties: G4S  and Rolls Royce are two examples. Easyjet was, like Tesla, covered for in an earlier presentation.

Some other option are the risky stocks: http://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/investing/T052-S003-8-risky-stocks-that-are-worth-the-risk/index.html Alibaba, Bluebird Bio and Elbit Systems were presented in this article.

This time we will have a look at BP. The annual report 2016 says (but you should check yourself!): Total revenue $ 186,606 MM, Net profit $ 172 MM (before taxation a loss of  $ -2,295 MM), Equity $ 96,843 MM and Total assets $ 263,316 MM

In the parameter- and only input-line for the demo-generator I wrote:

1, 1, 5, 20, 4

BP, 2016, 186.6, 0.172, 96.8, 263.2

By the way: the fourth value in the parameter-line (first line) is meaningless. It says 20% extra space between the “buildings” should be added, but there is only one in the demo-generator. By keeping this position the structure of the input-file for the demo-version remains equal to the structure of the real generator and an input-file for the real generator can be used for the demo. But only the first data-line (second line) will be interpreted as the others are ignored in the demo-generator.

We can compare the graph with Shell – a company in the same (energy) business, but we cannot tell which company is larger and even not which of them earns more money as the two graphs are stand-alone so size of the “buildings” cannot be compared. Yet from the shape we can tell BP has a higher gearing as the equity is smaller in comparison to the total assets. We can also see that BP generates more revenue compared to its equity than Shell does, but then with BP the profit is rather thin (literally, in the graph).

BP 2016

Shell 2016 BP comp

 

 

 

 

 

Clicking on the image will start the real 3D graph in your default browser (both Javascript and WebGL should be enabled). If you don’t trust the connection, download the .htm file first, using right-click. Have a look at the file and start it locally by double clicking it in Windows Explorer.
The 3D-graphs can be manipulated in real-time: clicking left and moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions (or move the observer’s viewpoint around a fixed graph – it’s relative of course). Double clicking in the graph translates it and moves the centre at the same time. As a result the way the graph tilts will change. Just try it. If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, just refresh the graph.

Of course there is no obligation to choose the net profit (as we could replace other values as well). Taking the profit before taxation would show a very different graph for BP, but then we should create an alternative set of the other (reference-) graphs as well because we should not compare apples and oranges. If you like, try it yourself as it is easy.

This was only one company again, but the other links provide a lot of companies for us to look at in the near future. Of course you can have a look for those annual reports already and enter the relevant values (Revenue, Profit, Equity and Total Assets) in the free demo-generator. Then you will even see the graphs before we do. Good luck!

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Using the demo-generator: Toshiba

In the previous blogpost four very different types of companies were presented. Now it’s time to compare other companies to these “archetypical” shapes in AnRep3D. Remember, I promised to work with the free demo generator (so not the full version, for which a license has to be purchased) to show even this one can bring valuable insights. It can be downloaded from our site (free, even no registration) and I actually did so myself to be sure I use the same package as you will. Demo-graphs don’t offer absolute comparison but only relative as the graphs will hold just one company in one single year, so only one “building” instead of a complete Manhattan-like overview. Yet some ratios will still be visible in the graph and the shapes of the different graphs can be compared as well.

Toshiba is a company with a lot of exposure during the last year. A good reason to have a look and we will do it now. Toshiba’s annual report is in Yen, but as we don’t have an absolute comparison, there is no need to change this. It’s only about the ratios in the graph compared to ratios in another graph (relative comparison). The annual report is called 2016, but three quarters are in 2015 as the Toshiba book-year is not from January to December. The numbers represent the complete Group Totals, including non-controlling interests: Revenue (all) is ¥ 5,903.4 Bln, Profit (actually a loss) is ¥ -460.0  Bln, Equity ¥ 672.2 Bln, Total Assets ¥ 5,433.3 Bln. and the graph visualising those numbers looks like this:

Toshiba

Clicking on the image will start the real 3D graph in your default browser (both Javascript and WebGL should be enabled). If you don’t trust the connection, download the .htm file first, using right-click. Have a look at the file and start it locally by double clicking it in Windows Explorer.
The 3D-graphs can be manipulated in real-time: clicking left and moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions (or move the observer’s viewpoint around a fixed graph – it’s relative of course). Double clicking in the graph translates it and moves the centre at the same time. As a result the way the graph tilts will change. Just try it. If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, just refresh the graph.

The height and depth of the graph are almost the same, as the revenue is about the same size as the total assets. More important however is the equity: it doesn’t differ a lot from the loss and the equity is already very small compared to the total assets, so the gearing is high (partially because of the loss)! Indeed Toshiba seems to be a candidate for a take-over as some analysts say unless it’s able to extract a lot of money from the market to boost the equity – or to return to a healthy profit of course. Toshiba is mainly an manufacturer, so we should compare it with Royal Philips or Royal Dutch Shell and not with a bank like ING and certainly not with a HR-services and temp agency like Randstad. The revenue is quite good but the gearing is high and therefore a loss will have more impact than for e.g. Takeway. Below the “archetypical graphs” from the previous posts are repeated: Bank (ING), Gas-oil-renewables (R.D. Shell), HR-temp (Randstad) and and innovative start-up (TakeAway. Let’s see what Toshiba comes up with next year!

ING 2016
Shell 2016
Randstad 2016
Takeaway 2016

 

Disclaimer: this blog is meant to demonstrate the power of AnRep3D only. It doesn’t offer any professional analysis or advice! For more information about our company and product (the AnRep3D graph-generator) please have a look at https://AnRep3D.com

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