Sell in May and go away: Airbus update Q2

On comparing Boeing and Airbus the last time, we still didn’t have the Airbus numbers for Q2 2019. Of course this was as interesting as the earlier periods, because of the 737Max ban, affecting Boeing heavily. The question was whether Airbus would profit from the misery of its competitor. Certainly we wouldn’t expect a heavy loss for Airbus like the one Boeing suffered, but the profit going up, that’s a different story!

Airbus 380 rear part

Photo by adueck on Pixabay

The problem is that building an aeroplane takes a while and the impact in the books all comes down to the moment of the actual sale (or payment, but companies usually will use the accrual system). A full order-book will be in the annual report somewhere, but the income-statement will only show real purchases by customers. If there is no capacity left, it will also take time to adjust the facilities. Let’s have a look at the complete graph, now holding Q2 2019 for Airbus as well.Complete 3D graph Boeing Airbus

Double-clicking the screenshot will open the 3D-graph in your browser. For maniputalion of this 3D-graph: Clicking the right mouse-button, moving the mouse up and down will zoom the graph in and out. Clicking left and moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions (or move the observer’s viewpoint around a fixed graph – it’s relative of course). Double clicking in the graph translates it and moves the centre at the same time. As a result the way the graph tilts will change. Just try it. If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, just refresh the graph.

Again, Q2 2019 is in the back. It’s immediately clear that Airbus shows a profit as the “roof” is green. The roof is rather thin, but the contrast with the thick red roof for Boeing is clear. Comparing Q2 2018 and 2019 for both Boeing and Airbus would also be interesting. From the graph we can see sales are pushed a little bit at the end of the year, boosting Q4 at the expense of the next Q1. Turning the graph sidewards we can look at both revenue and profit or loss.Side-view 3D graph Boeing Airbus

In the real 3D-graph the markers for the companies and periods are in the graph, but in a simple screenshot only one view is available. That’s why some information was added. Now we can see for Airbus Q2 2019 was certainly better than Q2 2018, but for Boeing the opposite applies: less revenue and a loss. Looking at the real 3D-graph the balance seems more or less unchanged and – as mentioned in the previous post – very similar for both companies. Yet the total liabilities went up a little bit for Boeing, but down for Airbus. For Boeing they even exceeded the total assets (the equity becoming negative) but for Airbus it was the other way round. The differences are really small and it’s still amazing how similar the companies are from this financial point of view.

For more information about our 3D-graph generator, visit our website https://anrep3d.com

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Sell in May and go away

But remember to be back in September. It’s an old advice at the stock-exchange and although it might also apply to me, I think it’s time for another (short) post.

Originally my plan was to visualise the Quantitative (and Qualitative) Easing or Asset Purchasing Programmes from the Fedral Reserve (FRB), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and European Central Bank (ECB) in relationship to e.g. inflation and interest. On gathering the data I realised the visualisation would only take me a couple of minutes indeed, but to get all the data I needed in a reliable way would mean reading a lot of complex documents with a structure very different from an annual report. This could take me several days of full-time work and I decided to switch to something else. For those who are interested three links for ECB, “FED” and BoJ.

Boeing 737

Photo by holgi on Pixabay

Everybody will remember the two crashes with a Boeing 737 Max in Q4 2018 and Q1 2019. As I’m not an expert on aviation (to put it mildly) I won’t comment on the events themselves, but it is clear that the following ban of the 737 Max was a huge blow for Boeing from a financial perspective.

At the same time we know they have an important competitor: Airbus. It seems reasonable to compare a series of quarterly reports of the two companies in a3D-graph, created by our familiar AnRep3D-generator. Let’s have a look at Q3 2018 – Q2 2019 for both. Applying some calculations the different numbers were derived from financial reports by Boeing and Airbus. Of course I had to use the same currencies for both companies, so I converted the EUR to USE for Airbus, using macrotrends.net Because a quarter is not a long period, I used the end of quarter rate for both balance and income-sheet.

Airbus A380

Photo by mrminibike on Pixabay

Looking at the numbers I was surprised to see Boeing had negative equity during two quarters and that’s why I added Q2 2018 for both. It didn’t help since it wasn’t an incident after all. Because of the negative equity, this time the graph shows total assets (width) and total liabilities (depth) as stated by the 3D-legend (or 3D-key). If the depth of a “building” exceeds the width, the equity (difference between the two) will be negative. This time the graph runs from past (front) to present (rear).3D-graph Boeing Airbus finance

Double-click the screenshot to open the real 3D-graph (html5) in your browser. Then clicking the right mouse-button, moving the mouse up and down will zoom the graph in and out. Clicking left and moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions (or move the observer’s viewpoint around a fixed graph – it’s relative of course). Double clicking in the graph translates it and moves the centre at the same time. As a result the way the graph tilts will change. Just try it. If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, just refresh the graph.

Looking at the visualisation in 3D, I was surprised – again – how useful it is to see such a 3D-image. Comparing the quarters of these representatives of the “old economy” to the new tech giants (e.g. FAANG – see other posts) it is clear how much of their money is in quality, documentation, regulation and of course physical components, whereas these new companies are able to create huge revenues and high margins with much less need for compliance. The “buildings” in the Boeing/Airbus graph are really flat and even if we would sum four quarters the revenue would still not be impressive when compared to the the amount of assets or liabilities.

Also surprising is the similarity between Boeing and Airbus from a financial perspective. Total assets and total liabilities are not very different and the same applies to their revenues. The profit is more volatile for Boeing and for Airbus the revenue is less stable, but maybe that’s just creative book-keeping? Airbus switched to IFRS15 by the way.sideview 3D-graph Boeing Airbus finance

Back to the accidents with the 737 Max: indeed Boeing suffered a huge loss over Q1 2019 – shown as a rather thick red roof, but at this moment the Q1-report for Airbus is not available yet. Will Airbus profit or will they suffer together? In a couple of days we will know and this 3D-graph will be extended.

For more information about our 3D-graph generator, visit our website!

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AnRep3D, EnRep3D or something completely different?

This time we won’t present a new 3D-graph and we won’t discuss a specific subject either. The holidays are starting and people are traveling or just taking their rest or the opposite: taking over work from colleagues. Not a good time for a fortnightly update and we will stay silent for a while. seashore with woman standing at beach

Photo by adamkontor on Pixabay

Last year we demonstrated the power of AnRep3D in different areas. Originally the generator was designed to visualise core data from Annual Reports in comparison (in time and between companies). AnRep3D is the abbreviation of “Annual Reports visualised in 3D”. This blog is only picking subjects I as a writer know about: finance, energy and some odd things like agriculture, telecom and healthcare. For energy the generator could be called EnRep3D: Energy Represented in 3D, but this would need a different manual, not talking about Profit and Total Assets or Equity, but about Fossil fuels, Renewables and CO2-free sources. If customers would like to have such an alternative manual, we are certainly willing to create a parallel package!

At the same time another question rises: in which areas would AnRep3D have added value by visualising data in comparison? For each combination of subject and period (or moment in time), a building will present three or four values at once as height, width and depth. As explained before, the result looks resembles a bird’s eye perspective of Manhattan. Currently we are thinking about a contest, where the most innovative applications (top 3?) of AnRep3D will be rewarded with a full licence for the AnRep3D package.

gold silver and bronze cup

Photo by qimono on Pixabay

To try AnRep3D yourself, a free demo-package is available on our website. It is a .zip-file which can be unpacked in any folder (directory) as it is independent. Java has to be installed to start the generator. To be able to show the generated graphs in a web-browser, this browser should be WebGL enabled and support Javascript, but this will apply to most desktops and laptops. The AnRep3D-generator itself is a .jar-file (Java) and can be started by double clicking. It will ask for an input-file with a specific structure, but that is explained in the manual and examples of input-files (and output-files as well) are included in the package. If something gets damaged for whatever reason just unpack the .zip-file again or download another one. No need for registration. The difference between the full generator and the demo-package is only that the demo is limited to one company and one period. As a result only one building will appear in the graph instead of maybe ten to over one hundred.

US-SteelIn some of the previous blogposts we use the demo-generator ourselves, to show its capacity (posts for the second half of 2017). If you don’t need the real generator, please go on with the demo as we don’t limit the use (apart from the normal legal issues like not reselling, not modifying and no reverse engineering). If the generator adds business value, we are happy – even if we are not paid for this free version. Our focus is on companies, as we are a B2B-company ourselves, but then companies can only exist because of their employees or owners, so in the end it’s all about people. We would love to hear your experience and perhaps you are willing to share your results. Please use #AnRep3D when sharing on Twitter. The contest has not started yet, but we welcome good ideas and are willing to provide a full generator upfront if somebody has a brilliant idea.

To give you an easy impression of the power of AnRep3D, an animated gif is presented below. Please have a look and think about what the generator might do for your company. In the end it’s all about competitive advantage through innovation, isn’t it?

Real videos are available on our youtube-channel

Our email-address is info@anrep3d.com and you can follow is on Twitter: @AnRep3D

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Energy-consumption in four large European countries

Normally these posts start with an intro on the subject and at the end I provide some information about our product and company. This time I will do it the other way round:

For information about the generator of 3D-graphs, please have a look at website and download  the free demo-package (zip). It  should be unpacked in a folder and the .jar file (the 3D-graph generator) can be started immediately. For a better understanding of the generator we have a couple of short movies at our youtube-channel. Our email-address is info@anrep3d.com and you can follow us on Twitter: @AnRep3D

communication

Photo by geralt on Pixabay

Now it’s time for this fortnight’s subject: the energy-consumption in Germany, United Kingdom, France and Italy. A long time ago a 3D-graph holding these countries was presented, but this time we take a different approach for the dimensions of the buildings. The sourse data are from the IEA with information about the population from sources like Wikipedia and Worldometers. The population is relevant because this time only the “per capita” consumption will be presented.

brexit

Previously all of the EU28 was compared to other countries. This time we take a couple of EU28 member-states.At this moment the United Kingdom is still a part of the EU28.

Photo by stux on Pixabay

 

Again the jumps in time are rather large, to have really impressive changes visible in the graph. Of course more subtle differences can be observed in a 3D-graph, but it’s less fun to write about. Dimensions defined in the graph (all presented as units of energy, like ktoe (kilotonne of oil equivalent) or PJ (PetaJoule) are this time:

  • Height: non-fossil sources (like nuclear, hydro, geothermal, solar wind and biological
  • Width: coal and oil combined
  • Depth: natural gas

The yellow part of the height represents sources without direct CO2 emissions (nuclear, hydro, geothermal, solar and wind) and the green part – although non fossil – is the section which is a part of the CO2 cycle and therefore more disputed than the regular renewables like solar and wind. The reason why natural gas is presented separately from coal and oil is because coal & oil are seen as the “old economy” now. Natural gas is fossil as well, but more of a transition source. Its related CO2-emissions per unit of energy are lower, but certainly not negligible.  Be aware that natural gas includes LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas). Apart from this, all four countries will have values in every dimension.

As always, the screenshot of the 3D-graph show below can be double clicked, to open the graph in a web-browser. The instructions about how to zoom, translate, rotate and tilt the the graph are given in small print below. Remember that all values are “per capita”!

3D-graph about energy consumption

 

Clicking the right mouse-button, moving the mouse up and down will zoom the graph in and out. Clicking left and moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions (or move the observer’s viewpoint around a fixed graph – it’s relative of course). Double clicking in the graph translates it and moves the centre at the same time. As a result the way the graph tilts will change. Just try it. If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, just refresh the graph.

What is remarkable in this 3D-graph? Although the total energy-consumption per inhabitant (GJ per captita: sum of height, width and depth) is not extremely different (in 2015 Italy’s comsumption was about 2/3rd of Germany’s), France has a very different shape, because the non-fossil part (height) is 2.5 – 4.5 times higher than for the other countries. The green part is not very different, but the yellow part is (4 – 8.5 times higher) – mainly because France has a lot of nuclear energy.Germany is still heavily relying on coal and oil, although the consumption went down in twenty years. The UK however, did much better. Then other differences are also interesting. E.g. all countries using less energy from coal and oil in 2015, compared to 1995. Of course the crisis helped to reduce the energy consumption. This explains why natural gas also went down. Otherwise a shift towards this source would have been more likely. Between 1995 and 2015 the green part (bio-fuel and waste) increased for all four countries. It would be interesting to investigate what the composition of this section is. The usage of potential food should be avoided and the same applies to the usage of agricultural land for biofuels instead of food. On the other hand, collecting waste from garbage can be useful as long as the recycling of valuable materials – including plastics – are at a high level. Toxic exhausts should also be avoided. Although this can all be visualised in a 3D-graph, we leave it like this for now. In the end the purpose of this blog is to show the power of the AnRep3D- (or is it EnRep3D-?) generator.

biological waste

Photo by Ben_Kerckx on Pixabay

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Visualising the energy-transition III – What about the USA?

Until now we have looked at the energy-mix of the five countries at a higher level. One dimension (depth) represented “fossil fuels” but fossil is the sum of (mainly) coal, oil and gas. When thinking about the CO2 equivalents emitted, we all know coal is roughly twice as bad as natural gas and oil is in between (respectively a magnitude of 100, 50 and 75 kg CO2/GJOil Rig

Photo by ambquinn on Pixabay

This means the composition of the fossil part is very important, as an amount of energy in  coal could be replaced by the same amount of energy in natural gas, but with half the CO2 being emitted. It’s still fossil, but for the transition it is an intermediate step. Let’s have a look at the data from the IEA again but this time with coal, oil and natural gas as dimensions. No nuclear and renewables as we already saw them in the previous graphs. To give a fair overview, both approaches are shown below: total use and use per capita, because the former tells us something about the global impact, but the latter is a more honest measure. Below two screenshots are shown. Both can be clicked, to open the real 3D-graph in your web-browser.

Instruction for manipulation of a graph: Clicking the right mouse-button, moving the mouse up and down will zoom the graph in and out. Clicking left and moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions (or move the observer’s viewpoint around a fixed graph – it’s relative of course). Double clicking in the graph translates it and moves the centre at the same time. As a result the way the graph tilts will change. Just try it. If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, just refresh the graph.

3D-graph on fossil fuel consumptionThis first graph won’t be a surprise. Everybody knows China uses a lot of coal – far more than the USA – and not a lot of oil and natural gas. Be aware that the past in front and the future to the rear. This is just a choice as the numbers can be fed to the generator in any order, creating different arrangements in the 3D-graph. The graph also shows that the consumption of coal rose quickly in China between 1995 and 2015. For India it’s far less impressive and the other countries are quite stable.

3D-graph on fossil fuels per capita

For the second graph, the time-axis is reversed: the present (well, 2015 I mean) is to the front and 1995 is to the rear. Here we see the average coal-consumption (height of building) per inhabitant and this time China is still high. Here, the USA is surprising. The population increased by about 20% between 1995 and 2015 but the coal-consumption went down (after an intermediate increase). The EU and Japan show more or less the same pattern and none of the replaces the coal with oil (depth of building) or natural gas (width of building). All managed to keep their energy-usage more or less stable or even reduce it. On the per capita level, all of them reduced their energy-consumption.

India and China and their energy-consumption doubled or tripled over two decades (the in total increase is stronger than for the value per capita). We cannot judge them for that, as they are simply developing later than the others, but we can ask them politely to use either less coal or get rid of the CO2 – and in the end they will!

For more information about the generator of 3D-graphs, please have a look at website and download  the free demo-package (zip). It  can be unpacked in a folder and the .jar file (the 3D-graph generator) can be started immediately. A manual and some examples of in- and output-files are also enclosed in the zip-file.

For a better understanding of the generator we have a couple of short movies at our youtube-channel. Our email-address is info@anrep3d.com and you can follow is on Twitter: @AnRep3D

Shaft in coal mine

Photo by hangela on Pixabay

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Visualising the energy-transition II – What about China?

In the previous post we saw a 3D-visualisation of the energy-consumption in five large countries. The shape of the buildings showed the composition of the energy-mix and the different dimensions could be compared within a country, but also between countries.

Now something was unfair about this representation as not all countries have the same number of inhabitants. This time we will show the consumption “per capita”. On average, that is, and at the same time we have to admit that it’s still not completely fair. Why? I will explain below.

Power Station

Photo by stevepb at Pixabay

The graph has the same structure as it had the last time, only this time it shows toe/person. A toe – 1 toe is about 42 GigaJoule or nearly 12 MWh, but the toe (tonne of oil equivalent) is trivial as GJ (GigaJoule) or MWh (MegaWatt-hours) would have provided the same graph anyway, using a slightly different scaling factor in the parameter-line of the input-file.

Again the height of the buildings represents renewables like solar, wind and hydro plus biofuels & waste, but the latter are shown in green.

The width shows nuclear energy and

the depth visualises the total fossil fuel consumption (mainly coal, oil and gas) by an inhabitant (again: on average).

This information is also available in the 3D-legend (3D-key), hovering in front of the graph. Energy carriers, like electricity, steam and hydrogen are not shown as they are not primary sources. Trade is also ignored. Again the data have been obtained from the International Energy Agency (IEA). Below a clickable screenshot-collage is shown. It shows the front, top and side-view of the actual 3D-graph behind the link. Comparing the energy-consumption per individual, the picture is completely different. In 2015 the average Chinese individual consumes more or less the same amount of fossil fuels as the EU, but the average American still consumes twice as much.

screeshots from 3D-graph

Double-click the screenshot to see the live 3D-graph in your browser. For manipulation: Clicking the right mouse-button, moving the mouse up and down will zoom the graph in and out. Clicking left and moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions (or move the observer’s viewpoint around a fixed graph – it’s relative of course). Double clicking in the graph translates it and moves the centre at the same time. As a result the way the graph tilts will change. Just try it. If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, just refresh the graph.

We can complain China as a country is using such a large amount of fossil fuel, but the average Chinese is close to the consumption-level in the EU and far below the USA.

Then there is something more. We all know China has a lot of industry and a lot of their products are actually used by us, Western consumers in EU and US. This means it would only be fair to count the energy-consumption related to the exported goods as a part of the consumption of the country receiving those goods. From this point of view, the real average consumption of energy by an inhabitant of the People’s Republic of China would even be lower and for the EU and US it would increase! This poses the question: “are we treating China unfairly when it comes down to energy-consumption?”

DragonPhoto by ractapopulous on Pixabay

For more information about the generator of 3D-graphs, please have a look at our website and download  the free demo-package (zip). It  can be unpacked in a folder and the .jar file (the 3D-graph generator) can be started immediately. For a better understanding of the generator we have a couple of short movies at our youtube-channel.

Our email-address is info@anrep3d.com and you can follow is on Twitter: @AnRep3D

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Visualising the energy-transition in 3D

Everybody knows about our global energy-transition, but are we doing well? Fossil fuels will come to an end, starting with coal. Renewables (e.g. solar, wind, hydropower and geothermal energy and biomass) are thought to be the solution, but at the same time biomass is disputed as it competes with food production and can destroy woods. Then we have nuclear energy. No carbon dioxide, but disputed as well for different reasons. The question is: which direction are we going, when looking at the facts? AnRep3D is able to visualise these complex numbers. Sometimes I wonder if we should offer a package called EnRep3D (Energy Representation in 3D), with a different manual. We’ll see!

Photo by SatyaPrem on Pixabay

During the last weeks I applied AnRep3D to different, non-financial areas. The advantage of finance is that all axes represent a value in money. Energy can do the same, as it has its own units. In finance we have US-dollars, Euros, Yuan, Yen and many other currencies representing the same value. In energy it’s more or less the same: TWh, GJ, MMBtu and ktoe are different measures to express an amount of energy. When we are thinking about the mix of different types of energy sources, it doesn’t matter which measure we will take as long as it’s the same for all values.

Photo by JACLOU-DL on Pixabay

The International Energy Agency provides a lot of data and I am happy to use them. The units are kilotonne of oil equivalents (ktoe – 1 ktoe is about 42 TeraJoule or nearly 12 GWh). I selected five large countries or actually four as Japan is small compared to the People’s Republic of China, India, the EU and the USA, but still interesting (as I will explain below).

Photo by luctheo on Pixabay

This time I won’t tell you about the process of collecting data, but just present the 3D-graph. Be aware that the population of the five countries is very different, partially explaining different amounts of energy. China and India have over 1 bln. inhabitants, Japan, USA and EU are over one, three and five hundred thousand people. Yet it’s not about the size of the buildings, but their shape (the ratios of their dimensions, that is). Regardless the size, we can compare the height (renewables) to the width (nuclear) and the depth (fossil). By the way: energy carriers, like electricity, steam and hydrogen are not shown as those are not primary sources. Trade is also ignored. Let’s have a look at the 3D-graph! Like always the screenshots can be clicked to open the real 3D-graph in your browser (JavaScript and WebGL enabled).

Double-click the screenshot to see the live 3D-graph in your browser. For manipulation: Clicking the right mouse-button, moving the mouse up and down will zoom the graph in and out. Clicking left and moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions (or move the observer’s viewpoint around a fixed graph – it’s relative of course). Double clicking in the graph translates it and moves the centre at the same time. As a result the way the graph tilts will change. Just try it. If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, just refresh the graph.

From this point of view we can see that the EU had more nuclear power than the US, but less renewables. Even if we ignore the green part, representing biofuels and waste, the energy-total of other renewables (represented by the yellow part (solar, wind, hydropower and geothermal energy) is still higher in the US. Traveling to the rear of the 3D-graph, we can see that in 2015 this is still the same.

Then Japan! It is a dwarf between the other powers, but nevertheless interesting. If we look from above at the last three buildings (2005, 2010 and 2015), the third one is suddenly very narrow (see top of the image to the left). Between 2010 and 2015 nearly all nuclear power disappeared. This can be explained by the Fukushima-disaster in 2011.

 

 

 

Finally we can observe China and India from aside. Their buildings are really tall, meaning a lot of renewables are in their energy-mix (have a look at the legend in front). Yet India is more or less green, meaning biofuels  and waste are the main types of renewables, wheras China shows an increasing part of yellow. This yellow part represents the other renewables, like solar and hydropower.

If we look at the depth of their buildings, we see every next building is more elongated, meaning the supply of fossil-based energy increased. From 2000 to 2015 it doubled for India and nearly tripled for China. Their buildings remain narrow, indicating that nuclear energy is still not very important, although a lot of nuclear power stations are under construction in these countries.

For more information about the generator of 3D-graphs, please have a look at website and download  the free demo-package (zip). It  can be unpacked in a folder and the .jar file (the 3D-graph generator) can be started immediately. For a better understanding of the generator we have a couple of short movies at our youtube-channel . Our email-address is info@anrep3d.com and you can follow us on Twitter: @AnRep3D

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