Using the demo-generator: shares with advice (+ or -) and BP

For the next posts and graphs, to be presented during the upcoming weeks, we will go with some positive and negative advices to be found on the Internet. I prepared a couple and will present the most relevant financial values from their annual reports in AnRep3D graphs.

https://investorplace.com/2016/12/10-dangerous-high-yield-dividend-stocks-to-avoid/view-all/#.WdoLijtpFdg mentions some high yield stocks to avoid and among them are: BP, GSK, AstraZeneca, Ericsson and Telefónica. We will use their 2016 annual reports.

https://investorplace.com/2016/12/the-7-worst-stocks-to-buy-for-2017/ presents the worst stocks to invest for 2017: US Steel, AK steel, Wells Fargo, Amazon and Facebook will be reviewed but Tesla Motors was already in one of the earlier blogposts. Of course we don’t know about 2017 yet, but we can go for 2016. The first half of 2017 would be an option, but with only half a year of profit it’s not a fair comparison.

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/426614/15-top-stocks-first-half-2017 Talks about shares being the best for the first half of 2017. Too late to be bought now, but let’s have a look at their AnRep3D properties: G4S  and Rolls Royce are two examples. Easyjet was, like Tesla, covered for in an earlier presentation.

Some other option are the risky stocks: http://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/investing/T052-S003-8-risky-stocks-that-are-worth-the-risk/index.html Alibaba, Bluebird Bio and Elbit Systems were presented in this article.

This time we will have a look at BP. The annual report 2016 says (but you should check yourself!): Total revenue $ 186,606 MM, Net profit $ 172 MM (before taxation a loss of  $ -2,295 MM), Equity $ 96,843 MM and Total assets $ 263,316 MM

In the parameter- and only input-line for the demo-generator I wrote:

1, 1, 5, 20, 4

BP, 2016, 186.6, 0.172, 96.8, 263.2

By the way: the fourth value in the parameter-line (first line) is meaningless. It says 20% extra space between the “buildings” should be added, but there is only one in the demo-generator. By keeping this position the structure of the input-file for the demo-version remains equal to the structure of the real generator and an input-file for the real generator can be used for the demo. But only the first data-line (second line) will be interpreted as the others are ignored in the demo-generator.

We can compare the graph with Shell – a company in the same (energy) business, but we cannot tell which company is larger and even not which of them earns more money as the two graphs are stand-alone so size of the “buildings” cannot be compared. Yet from the shape we can tell BP has a higher gearing as the equity is smaller in comparison to the total assets. We can also see that BP generates more revenue compared to its equity than Shell does, but then with BP the profit is rather thin (literally, in the graph).

BP 2016

Shell 2016 BP comp

 

 

 

 

 

Clicking on the image will start the real 3D graph in your default browser (both Javascript and WebGL should be enabled). If you don’t trust the connection, download the .htm file first, using right-click. Have a look at the file and start it locally by double clicking it in Windows Explorer.
The 3D-graphs can be manipulated in real-time: clicking left and moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions (or move the observer’s viewpoint around a fixed graph – it’s relative of course). Double clicking in the graph translates it and moves the centre at the same time. As a result the way the graph tilts will change. Just try it. If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, just refresh the graph.

Of course there is no obligation to choose the net profit (as we could replace other values as well). Taking the profit before taxation would show a very different graph for BP, but then we should create an alternative set of the other (reference-) graphs as well because we should not compare apples and oranges. If you like, try it yourself as it is easy.

This was only one company again, but the other links provide a lot of companies for us to look at in the near future. Of course you can have a look for those annual reports already and enter the relevant values (Revenue, Profit, Equity and Total Assets) in the free demo-generator. Then you will even see the graphs before we do. Good luck!

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Using the demo-generator: Toshiba

In the previous blogpost four very different types of companies were presented. Now it’s time to compare other companies to these “archetypical” shapes in AnRep3D. Remember, I promised to work with the free demo generator (so not the full version, for which a license has to be purchased) to show even this one can bring valuable insights. It can be downloaded from our site (free, even no registration) and I actually did so myself to be sure I use the same package as you will. Demo-graphs don’t offer absolute comparison but only relative as the graphs will hold just one company in one single year, so only one “building” instead of a complete Manhattan-like overview. Yet some ratios will still be visible in the graph and the shapes of the different graphs can be compared as well.

Toshiba is a company with a lot of exposure during the last year. A good reason to have a look and we will do it now. Toshiba’s annual report is in Yen, but as we don’t have an absolute comparison, there is no need to change this. It’s only about the ratios in the graph compared to ratios in another graph (relative comparison). The annual report is called 2016, but three quarters are in 2015 as the Toshiba book-year is not from January to December. The numbers represent the complete Group Totals, including non-controlling interests: Revenue (all) is ¥ 5,903.4 Bln, Profit (actually a loss) is ¥ -460.0  Bln, Equity ¥ 672.2 Bln, Total Assets ¥ 5,433.3 Bln. and the graph visualising those numbers looks like this:

Toshiba

Clicking on the image will start the real 3D graph in your default browser (both Javascript and WebGL should be enabled). If you don’t trust the connection, download the .htm file first, using right-click. Have a look at the file and start it locally by double clicking it in Windows Explorer.
The 3D-graphs can be manipulated in real-time: clicking left and moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions (or move the observer’s viewpoint around a fixed graph – it’s relative of course). Double clicking in the graph translates it and moves the centre at the same time. As a result the way the graph tilts will change. Just try it. If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, just refresh the graph.

The height and depth of the graph are almost the same, as the revenue is about the same size as the total assets. More important however is the equity: it doesn’t differ a lot from the loss and the equity is already very small compared to the total assets, so the gearing is high (partially because of the loss)! Indeed Toshiba seems to be a candidate for a take-over as some analysts say unless it’s able to extract a lot of money from the market to boost the equity – or to return to a healthy profit of course. Toshiba is mainly an manufacturer, so we should compare it with Royal Philips or Royal Dutch Shell and not with a bank like ING and certainly not with a HR-services and temp agency like Randstad. The revenue is quite good but the gearing is high and therefore a loss will have more impact than for e.g. Takeway. Below the “archetypical graphs” from the previous posts are repeated: Bank (ING), Gas-oil-renewables (R.D. Shell), HR-temp (Randstad) and and innovative start-up (TakeAway. Let’s see what Toshiba comes up with next year!

ING 2016
Shell 2016
Randstad 2016
Takeaway 2016

 

Disclaimer: this blog is meant to demonstrate the power of AnRep3D only. It doesn’t offer any professional analysis or advice! For more information about our company and product (the AnRep3D graph-generator) please have a look at https://AnRep3D.com

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Using the free demo-generator – relative instead of absolute comparison.

Last time I promised the new series of blog-posts would be about graphs generated with the new, free demo-generator. Of course we like it if people purchase a full license, but who would do so without knowing whether the product offers added value? That’s why we offer the demo-generator for free. Even no registration, no cookies – it’s completely anonymous! Yet we think some people won’t stay anonymous, because the will share their experiences. It’s up to you of course, so get a free copy of the package, including a manual and examples of input- and output-files (the graphs in html-format). Just go to: https://anrep3d.com/free-demo to have a look.

Is the demo-generator free because it’s useless? Certainly not! The only limitation is the number of lines to be read and therefore the number of “buildings”. Only the first data-line will be processed and therefore only one building will appear in the graph.
That’s the only difference!

Below an example is shown of a graph generated with the free demo-generator (I didn’t pay for it but downloaded it for free from our own website): it’s about Royal Philips, a well-known Dutch manufacturer focusing on medical equipment now but still owning a part of their old lighting division. The picture below is a collage of screenshots. Philips 2016

 

 

Double click it to see the real dynamic 3D graph. Clicking left and moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions (or move the observer’s viewpoint around a fixed graph – it’s relative of course). Double clicking in the graph translates it and moves the centre at the same time. As a result the way the graph tilts will change. Just try it. If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, just refresh the graph.

Having only on “building” means an absolute comparison between companies or for different years is not possible. Yet comparing companies will be possible in a relative way.

What does this mean? Well, the AnRep3D graphs show four basic characteristics of a company in a certain year: revenue, profit, equity and total assets. The exact names will differ between annual reports and sometimes the income from operations is much lower than the actual sales, but that’s up to you.

The main point is some companies have a very high equity to total assets ratio whilst others hardly have any equity (e.g. banks and insurance companies, mainly working with borrowed capital). Then some companies will make profit and others will report a loss (usually start-ups and very innovative companies like Tesla). The revenue can be very, very high when compared to the equity or total assets, but for others it’s very low (capital-intensive industries, with significant investments in e.g. production lines).

These industries will have very different shapes when presented in an AnRep3D graph. Your graphs could be compared with such basic examples and although the size won’t tell a lot (the graph for a huge company could look more or less the same as a very small one), the shapes will.

To facilitate such a relative comparison, I present four different examples of types of industries, to be recognised by their graphs. Five Dutch companies were selected. It’s about their characteristics so it doesn’t matter if you know them, as long as it’s clear what kind of business they are in.

The four are:

  • Royal Dutch Shell (Gas, Oil, Electricity and Renewables),
  • ING (a bank both retail and wholesale),
  • Randstad (mainly a temp and recruitment agency) and
  • Takeaway (a former start-up delivering meals from third parties).

For now, we will present some screenshot-collages. Clicking on the image will start the real 3D graph in your default browser (both Javascript and WebGL should be enabled). If you don’t trust the connection, download the .htm file first, using right-click. Have a look at the file and start it locally by double clicking it in Windows Explorer.

The real graphs can be manipulated in real-time: clicking left and moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions (or move the observer’s viewpoint around a fixed graph – it’s relative of course). Double clicking in the graph translates it and moves the centre at the same time. As a result the way the graph tilts will change. Just try it. If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, just refresh the graph.

ING 2016

Shell 2016

 

 

 

 

Randstad 2016

Takeaway 2016

 

 

 

Next week we will discuss the characteristics of the four companies, being a representative of very different types of industries. In between you can download your free demo-package and try it yourself: https://anrep3d.com/free-demo

Or have a look at our website: AnRep3D

 

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Starting a new series, using the demo-generator

After a long silent period it’s time to start another series of blog-posts. During the summer most potential  readers were at the beach, sailing or traveling through a foreign country, not thinking about business and work at all. So why bother?

Of course I discussed a lot of different annual reports, comparing  different companies or a  company through a series. Often it was a combination: several companies and a couple of years.  E.g: https://anrep3d.wordpress.com/2017/03/18/looking-at-the-3d-graph/ about banks in the Netherlands, https://anrep3d.wordpress.com/2017/03/26/oil-gas-companies-in-spatial-graphs/ about oil & gas companies, https://anrep3d.wordpress.com/2017/04/02/comparing-different-types-of-companies-in-a-spatial-graph/  about very different industries in comparison, https://anrep3d.wordpress.com/2017/06/17/visualising-a-mix-of-large-companies-in-a-spatial-graph-i/  again about  very different industries in comparison but this time really large ones, usually  well-known (or at least their products and services).

For all these examples a full licence was needed, but the demo-version of AnRep3D is free. Why not use our own free demo-package  for a change, to  generate graphs the way everybody could do with the free demo-generator? Well, next time I will present a couple of companies (only one company a time for just one specific year as the free demo will generate only one “building” in the graph). Don’t think a graph generator with the free demo-generator wouldn’t be interesting!

Because four values are combined in one single building (total assets, equity, revenue and profit) a lot of ratio’s can be deducted visually: revenue or profit compared to equity, revenue and profit, equity to total assets. All relative measure providing interesting insight.

Let’s try and work out a couple of companies next time. Hope you will like it and don’t forget: the demo-package can be downloaded for free. The generator comes with the manual and examples of input- and output-files (graphs, in html format, so basically webpages your browser can read and show). For now it’s available without any registration of name, email-address or phone number! No cookies either – completely anonymous, because we want everybody to have a look: https://anrep3d.com/free-demo

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Why we had to drop the stereo-view for AnRep3D

After all the examples given, showing the usage of the AnRep3D generator, it’s time for some retrospective. It will be bit of a technical discussion, so if you don’t like it, just skip this post as the subject is a one-off for now.

The original plan was – and still is – to create a Virtual Reality environment, where the graphs can be walked through and manipulated in real time. Actually, our first step was closer to this objective than the current implementation of AnRep3D. The old versions of the generator were providing VRML output. VRML stands for Virtual Reality Modelling Language (in the past the formal expression was Virtual Reality Markup Language). It became popular with a small group of people and organisations only and as a result there was e.g. no native support for the language in browsers or other broadly used applications. Plug-ins and stand-alone viewers were available – even for free – but we noticed people didn’t like to go there.

VRML is a rather old language and it has a successor in XML-format: X3D. Unfortunately this new official standard is supported even less than VRML itself! So about two years ago we decided to switch to a new concept, lowering the threshold for users. Since then generator provided HTML5 code, to be read by all modern browsers. The choice was still between generating a lot of Javascript-code (I hate the language but it’s everywhere) or some kind of rather clean X3D, embedded in a HTML-page as supported by X3DOM. X3DOM is a standard and a supporting organisation (see: https://www.x3dom.org/ ). Deep down both solutions use WebGL ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WebGL ), so basically there’s no difference but X3DOM takes care of all the Javascript nuisance.

So after years of research and development using VRML, we moved to X3DOM and now the output of the generator can be presented by a web-browser without any additional actions like installing plug-ins. One of the drawbacks however, is the lack of support for stereoscopy. For VRML a very nice viewer was available (see: http://freewrl.sourceforge.net/ ) offering stereoscopic view based on a left-eye and right-eye presentation (and other options as well). For X3DOM or at least HTML5 with X3D (using WebGL) it’s not impossible, but very, very hard as the whole image has to be generated for both left and right eye – both presenting a slightly different viewpoint of course. But to be honest: the parameters for the stereoscopic viewer had to be optimised to get the best result and only experienced users would go down that road.

Yet it’s nice to see the stereoscopic version of the AnRep3D-graph using some VR-gear like wither an Oculus or a mobile phone in some cardboard-equivalent. In the picture an example of a cheap one I purchased recently.

VR-headset

Don’t think it’s impossible to offer stereoscopic pictures for an AnRep3D graph. Screenshots can still be stereoscopic, because the left-eye picture and the right-eye picture can be taken as separate screenshots and placed together. Remember: It will do to present them on the screen of a  mobile phone which is placed in some cheap VR-device (about 10 euro). The same way as stereoscopic Youtube movies are watched. An example of (the box of) such a device is shown to the left.

 

The actual screenshot-pair taken from a graph discussed in a previous post is shown below (please download the original – it’s larger and therefore the resolution will be better).

Stereo-view of graph large companies

For people who prefer to squint when looking at stereoscopic photographs (I do it myself), there is a second version of the picture with the left-eye and right-eye image switched. It has a tiny white line in the middle (on purpose, to avoid confusion with the headset version).

Crossed stereo-view for graph showing large companies

 

The real difficulty is having a stereoscopic image to be manipulated (translate, rotate, tilt) in real-time. Eventually we will get there again. For now it’s important everybody in the world knowing about AnRep3D and the people needing it all having a licence!

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Visualising a mix of large companies in a spatial graph (III)

Last time we checked the values again and corrected the input for PSA. E.on however, has really shrunk! The 2016 loss was extremely high and as a result the equity almost vaporised. The total assets and the revenue are much, much lower as well. This is not about taking an annual report from the wrong company. E.on decided to transform itself, because of the German “Energiewende”. Some background information can be found in this article: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/04/eon-completes-split-of-fossil-fuel-and-renewable-operations What we observe in the graph is the truth! Below a screenshot clearly illustrating the change (E.on is in the middle, with 2006 in the front and 2016 to the rear).

Eon shrank

Although E.on is a striking one, the other companies are important as well, so let’s discuss them from the left to the right:

Tesco sideview

Tesco did slightly better in 2016 than in 2006. The revenue became higher and the ratio of the equity to total assets improved. The former fact can be observed in the sideview.

 

Top-view large mix

The latter is visible from the top. In the same screenshots we can see PSA (second from the left) improved its equity to total asset ratio much more. The large loss E.on suffered in 2016 cannot be seen from the top, but is clearly visible in the side-view above.

 

 

 

 

Of course all these screenshots are poor substitutes for the real graph, so have a look at the original 3D version. Clicking on the screenshot will do because of the hyperlink. The 3D-graph is just an HTML-page and will appear in your browser. As stated before it can be manipulated easily:

Clicking the right mouse-button, moving the mouse up and down will zoom the graph in and out. Clicking left and moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions (or move the observer’s viewpoint around a fixed graph – it’s relative of course). Double clicking in the graph translates it and moves the centre at the same time. As a result the way the graph tilts will change. Just try it. If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, just refresh the graph.

IBM and Maersk front-viewTo the right we still have Maersk and IBM. For both the revenue decreased a little bit between 2006 and 2016, but Maersk went from profit to loss (no wonder for logistics), whereas IBM had a healthy profit in both years!

Again, it’s not the perspective, because we see the same pattern when turning around 180 degrees. Now IBM is to the left of course and Maersk to the right.

IBM Maersk 180 degrees rotated

 

No need for additional comments. You can have a look for yourself and draw your own conclusions!

 

 

If you want to try it yourself just download the demo-package. It’s free – even no registration needed at the moment. Only one “building” will be shown. If you want to visualise a series of companies over a range of years (e.g. ten companies over ten years is a possibility), you will need the fully functional generator. Contact us (info@anrep3d.com or anrep3d@gmail.com) or have a look at our AnRep3D website first.

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Visualising a mix of large companies in a spatial graph (II)

Picking up the subject where I left it last time, I have to convert all the numbers into the same currency. Otherwise we cannot compare the numbers in a spatial graph (nor in any other graph for that matter).  This time, it will be USD, so we have to convert EUR and GBP to USD. To be able to do so, I used http://www.macrotrends.net/ a very useful site! As revenue and profit will cover for the whole year, I had to derive an average exchange rate, whereas equity and assets are a snapshot at the end of the year, asking for an exchange rate at the end of the year as well. I applied:

GBP  -> USD 2006 average $1,87 and for the end of year value $1,95

GBP  -> USD 2016 average $1,35 and for the end of year value $1,23

EUR -> USD 2006 average $1,27 and for the end of year value $1,32

EUR -> USD 2016 average $1,10 and for the end of year value $1,05

One could argue the values chosen but this this blog is not science, it’s about showing the power of spatial graphs in financial analysis. So let’s move on.

Some values were a little bit odd (or even very odd, like for PSA and E.on) and therefore I double-checked the values. I found some typos, but the values which struck me as odd were alright. This means some strange things happened in the period between 2006 and 2016. One special event is known as the “financial crisis”, but other influences could apply as well, like divestments or mergers and acquisitions. My input-file looked like this:

input-file large_mix

Despite the double check: having a first look at the 3D-graph (clicking the screenshot below – or just looking at it), it really didn’t make sense!

large_mix topfront view

To the left, both E.on and PSA, large companies in 2006, look very small in 2016. If we tilt the graph a little bit more, it’s even clearer: see below. large_mix tilted

It’s not some strange parallax or perspective. If we turn the graph 180 degrees it’s not very different (below).

large_mix 180 degree trun

To understand what went on, I checked wikipedia and annual reports for other years. I will talk about E.on later,  but despite the crisis PSA (the Peugeot Citroën company) didn’t change that much. Looking for 2015 I got an annual report in South African Rand and I realised this was about another company. Yet, my numbers for 2016 were in euros and I didn’t expect another PSA to be active in Europe. On the other hand for a completely different industry it would be possible and since I only went for the income-statement and balance-sheet, I could have missed something. And I did! Asking for annual reports 2016 again, I noticed a “PSA International” just above the “Groupe PSA”. The former was a smaller fish-related company, but the latter was the one I looked for and it was all about cars indeed.

For E.on the 2015 numbers looked quite normal as well (I even checked a whole range of years), but then suddenly the 2015 numbers in the 2016 report were quite different from the original ones. After large divestments E.on became quite a different company in 2016. After correcting the PSA numbers the graph looks better. Next time I will talk about E.on and the other companies in more detail, using the new graph below (just click on the screenshot to have a look). For all companies we see the impact of the crisis, but the graph makes more sense now.

(To manipulate real 3D graph: zoom = click right button and move mouse, rotate = click left, hold button and move mouse, translate = double-click in graph. Restore the original position by using the browser’s refresh-button. )

large_mix corrected

For more information about our generator for spatial (3D) graphs of annual reports, have a look at AnRep3D

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