Data is the new oil IV – before this oil war

Yes, we live in “interesting times”.  The oil majors are still the largest industries in the world (measured by revenue) and that’s why we started with ExxonMobil and will add Royal Dutch Shell now. When I choose this subject, I had no idea of an oil war and neither was the impact of the new Corona-virus as large as it is now.

Old-fashioned oil harvestingPhoto by jplenio on Pixabay

The shares of these companies dropped like hardly ever seen, but we are not looking at the present situation. The series we picked was 2008, 2013 and 2018 to be sure we have annual reports available. The impact of the current events will only be shown in the next quarterly reports or in the annual reports of 2020 – expected in somewhere around the end of Q1 2021. Of course we could use AnRep3D to visualise something like total market value of shares outstanding and it would be impressive to see how the towers would change to stubs, but that’s not what we are doing right now.

Remember: the free demo-package can be downloaded from our website. It presents only one company for one period in time (so only one “building”) but companies can purchase a licence and if you are a consumer you will get it for free. Well, for free… you have to send in your graph (for email, see website), created with the demo-package. Good luck with that!

As said above, we added Royal Dutch Shell to the graph which already held ExxonMobil. It’s interesting to see that currently Royal Dutch Shell is the larger one, because ExxonMobil’s revenue dropped more over time. Yet some similarities can be observed and the revenue of Royal Dutch Shell dropped as well. At least partially this will be the result of divestments made, but disasters and economic events took their toll as well.

Let’s have a look at the front, where we can see the widths of the buildings, representing the (shareholder’s) equity. Of course we can also see the height (revenue) and the thickness of the green roofs. The green indicates a profit rather than a loss which would have shown a red roof.

ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell 3D 1We can see the equity growing from the back (2008) to the front (2018). As always I won’t give any interpretation or advice, but it’s a remarkable fact. Despite the dropping revenue, the profit remained healthy. Of course it is better to have a look at the real 3D-graph as this screenshot is a poor representation of such a rich visualisation.

Double-clicking the screenshot will open the 3D-graph in your browser. For maniputalion of this 3D-graph: Clicking the right mouse-button and moving the mouse up and down at the same time, will zoom the graph in and out. Clicking left while moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions. Double clicking in the graph translates it and readjusts the centre at the same time. Just try it – If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, refresh the page in your browser.

ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell 3D 2Then we can have a look from aside. Here we can see that the total assets (the depth of the building) have grown as well. This means that the total balance has grown and total liabilities also went up.

 

A view from top (or bottom for that matter) will show us the ratio between total assets and equity.

ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell 3D 3The difference between depth and width represents the total liabilities of course as the drawing in the screenshot explains. Now we can clearly see that for Royal Ducth Shell the equity went up in two steps with the total liabilities following the same pace – leaving the bearing more or less the same. For ExxonMobil we see both equity and total assets being lower in 2018 again – again with the gearing being more or less the same.

That’s it for now. The new posts will be announced on Twitter: @AnRep3D  Our Youtube-channel offers short explanatory movies on the 3D-graphs and the generator creating them. For more background, download our white-paper  together with the 3D-graphs (html-format) discussed (available as zip).

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Data is the new oil III – large, but shrinking

We are not talking about the largest company in the world at this moment, because that would be Wallmart. Lady leaning against a wall

Photo by DzeeShah on Pixabay

Our selection was about Oil Majors, Tech Giants and large Manufacturers and therefore the choice is limited. The surprise however, is that the first one selected for the new series of posts – ExxonMobil – is not even the largest Oil Major (by revenue) at this moment. Of course in this first version of the 3D-graph there will only be one single line of “buildings”: the years 2018, 2013 and 2008 for ExxonMobil. This makes it hard to get an impression of the size. Only when the others come in, the difference will become clear. During the ranking of the twelve companies we selected (I think the list we used was a bit outdated) Exxon Mobile was the largest and Facebook the smallest. It would be nice to add Facebook in the next post, to give an impression of the range.

For now we can only see what happened to the Revenue (height of the building), Profit (green roofs – no losses so no red roofs), the Equity (width) and of course the total Assets (depth) of ExxonMobil.3D-graph ExxonMobil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Double-clicking the screenshot will open the 3D-graph in your browser. For maniputalion of this 3D-graph: Clicking the right mouse-button and moving the mouse up and down at the same time, will zoom the graph in and out. Clicking left while moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions. Double clicking in the graph translates it and readjusts the centre at the same time. Just try it – If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, refresh the page in your browser.

What do we see? No losses and the equity went up – especially from 2008 to 2013. The total assets increased less and from the shape of the ground-plan of the building we can tell that the gearing was reduced. The most remarkable part is that the revenue was much lower in 2018 than in 2013. The profit was also lower in the recent period. The strongest drop  of the revenue was mainly from 2014 to 2015 When we have a look at oil prices over the years, we can see why. Some background information can be found on the Internet. Upcoming posts will show whether the other oil majors suffered in the same way. The question is if data could also show a sharp price-drop.

The new posts will be announced on Twitter: @AnRep3D Our Youtube-channel offers short explanatory movies on the 3D-graphs and the generator creating them. For more background, download our white-paper  together with the 3D-graphs (html-format) discussed (available as zip). Or go to our website and download the free demo-package to try the 3D-graph generator yourself.

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Data is the new oil II – which order?

It is time to come up with something, but until now I only determined which companies to visualise: four oil majors, four manufacturers and four tech giants. Apple is a manufacturer, but because of its history we will consider it to be a tech giant. Samsung as a manufacturer delivers components to Apple and brings its own phones to the market at the same time, so the line between manufacturing and tech giant is a bit blurry.

Oil field at sunset

Photo by by lalabell68 on Pixabay

Thinking about the order of the companies and the periods to present (2019, 2018, 2017 won’t be fun at all), I made a mistake. To be sure that all numbers are available right now, I decided to take 2018, 2013 and 2008. Ten years ago the world was very different and we might expect some interesting changes during a decade. Therefore I thought it would be nice to take the original sizes (in revenue) for all twelve companies in 2008. After a couple of search actions, some reading and calculating I realised that this was not the way to go. The plan was to add one a company at a time and preparing datasets for three years is doable. However, collecting one year for all companies upfront would not contribute to the story any time soon.

Last time, when selecting the interesting set of companies, I already added the revenues in billions of USD. It would be easier to just sort the list and present it right here! Perhaps the values are not completely reliable, but we will correct this later and change the order in the graph if needed. Long story short – the list with the most recently known revenues is this one:

Exxon Mobile 405 bln. USD

Royal Dutch Shell 356 bln. USD

Volkswagen 278  bln. USD

BP 274 bln. USD

Toyota 272 bln. USD

Apple 266 bln. USD

Amazon 233 bln. USD

Samsung Electronics 222 USD

Chevron 205 bln USD.

Alphabet 137 bln. USD

Microsoft 110 bln. USD

Facebook 56 bln. USD

Interesting to see that Apple reported a revenue (sales) of only 32.5 bln. USD in 2008. Ten years later it is over eight times as large. On the other hand Exxon Mobil –  still the largest with 405 bln. USD of revenue – reported 477 bln. USD of total revenue in 2008 – only 80% of the original amount. At the stock exchange Apple already took over the leading position, but that’s also based on expectations about the future of course. Looking at revenue, the oil majors are still at the top. For how long? Is data really the new oil or will the tech giants meet their own climate problem in cyberspace? There it will probably not be CO2 (although data centres emit a lot of it as a part of their energy is coming from fossil fuels), but privacy, manipulation and ethics being the challenge. Let’s see how their financial position developed during the last decade in the next posts. At least now it is clear that Exxon Mobile will be the first one.

The new posts will be announced on Twitter: @AnRep3D

Our Youtube-channel offers short explanatory movies on the 3D-graphs and the generator creating them. For more background, download our white-paper  together with the 3D-graphs (html-format) discussed (available as zip). Or go to our website and download the free demo-package to try the 3D-graph generator yourself.

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Data is the new oil

Is data really the new oil? It depends on the the point of view, of course. Cars will drive on electricity or hydrogen, but not on data. Homes won’t be heated by data, although data-centres can generate a lot of heat. The statement “data is the new oil” referred to the (financial) value of data in comparison to the value of oil in the past and probably the fact that data flows out spontaneously, like the oil did originally. That’s why our new series of blog-posts will deal with oil majors and tech giants – but not only! Indeed some of the companies in these industries belong to the largest in the world, but we should not forget about some manufacturers, like Samsung, Volkswagen and Toyota. Apple is considered to be a tech giant and a manufacturer at the same time.Lady lit by oil or data

Photo by Matheus Bertelli on Pexels

Looking at the size of the largest oil majors, tech giants and manufacturers, they all have annual revenues of over a hundred billion – up to fourhundred for Exxon Mobile – with one exception: the relative “dwarf” Facebook. The selection we will try and investigate doring the next months is:

Oil: Exxon Mobile, Royal Dutch Shell, BP, Chevron

Manufacturing: Toyota, Volkswagen, Samsung

Tech: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook

Every other week a company will be added to the 3D-graph, like it was done in the past for the automotive series. Instead of the “traditional” RPEA-series (Revenue, Profit, Equity, total Assets) we will visualise Revenue, Profit, total Liabilities and total Assets (RPLA) for a change.

New posts will be announced on Twitter: @AnRep3D Our Youtube-channel offers short explanatory movies on the 3D-graphs and the generator creating them. For more background, download our white-paper  together with the 3D-graphs (html-format) discussed (available as zip). Or go to our website and download the free demo-package to try the 3D-graph generator yourself.

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IPOs in 3D VI – Jumia, not UP Fintech

We still had two IPOs to go: UP Fintech and Jumia. During the collection of data it turned out that UP Fintech is… let’s say special. It seems to be a subsidiary of a company called Tiger that has been around for 25 years but was silent after 2016. Then UP Fintech’s ticker code is TIGR. Probably this is a reversed listing, but that’s not the issue. Only one quarterly report could be found (form 10Q as the registration is NASDAQ). There the total Liabilities reported are very low when compared to the total Assets. Indeed the Equity is high, but even higher than the total Assets. After some correction the Equity suddenly is negative. For me this was enough to drop this company as it seems it’s not compatible with IFRS (or US GAAP) or uses a special version I don’t know of. This means only Jumia, an African platform-company (started in Nigeria), was left in scope.Nigerian woman

Photo by gregade on Pixabay

Although Jumia is very good in burning money, the quarterly reports look much better than UP Fintech’s. But we selected them because of the change in the price of the shares. At the end of the day of the IPO the share-price was nearly twice as high as the offer price. Within a couple of weeks it was even three times this value, but then it started to drop. At this moment (start of 2020) the share-price is below six USD. Before and after the IPO losses were reported which were even higher than the revenue. Probably the investors lost their faith after hoping for a turn for the better?

It’s funny that this African company has a registration at the NYSE, but publishes quarterly reports in EUR. For me this meant the values had to be converted to USD, but because the EUR-USD exchange rate is rather stable and the period is short, so a factor 1.1 was taken for all values. Below a screenshot of the full 3D-graph for all IPOs is shown. Underneath a more detailed screenshot showing the Jumia “buildings”.

Double-clicking a screenshot will open the 3D-graph in your browser. For manipulation of this 3D-graph: Clicking the right mouse-button and moving the mouse up and down at the same time, will zoom the graph in and out. Clicking left while moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions. Double clicking in the graph translates it and readjusts the centre at the same time. Just try it – If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, refresh the page in your browser.3D-graph_IPOs Jumia

3D-graph_IPOs Jumia details

The good news is that the equity wasn’t negative before the IPO! After the IPO the situation was much better of course, although the losses keep burning money. In the 3D-graph the red roofs are showing clearly that the losses are high. Although the end of year balance for 2018 is known, we had to estimate the revenue and loss for Q4 2018 by taking the average from the cumulative 2018 Q3 value.

Here our series on IPO ends. We didn’t comment a lot on conclusions to be drawn from the 3D-graph as we leave that to you as a reader. Follow us on Twitter (@AnRep3D) or have a look at our website. There a free demo-generator can be downloaded.  It is fully functional, yet limited to one line of data (meaning that only one building will appear, representing one company in a specific year or quarter). With this generator it’s even possible to to get a free licence if you are a consumer, instead of a company – read about it on our website. For an in-depth explanation, visit our Youtube-channel. There AnRep3D is explained in a couple of short videos.

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Intermezzo – finally, a contest!

Last week I should have posted something about another IPO, but I didn’t. Somehow the pattern became too clear, although I will investigate the others on the list. Apart from this I was on holiday and to be honest, I spent my time thinking about AnRep3D’s business-model. It’s a simple model: we offer companies a licence for a one-off payment. For now that’s still the plan.

At the same time the idea was to have some kind of contest. The question was what the award would be: a free licence seemed a good option, but how many? And for what period would the contest run?

Boats sailingPhoto by skeeze on Pixabay

Then I realised that only individuals will use the generator, as companies are just a group of individuals. The problem was that such a single person would be a “consumer” and we don’t sell to consumers.  After a while I understood that it is safe to offer such a consumer a generator in return for a creative idea (without paying with money that is). Probably not a real contest, as both the best and the worst will be rewarded equally. Yet it is a good way to challenge people (companies can hardly be challenged).

It means that we are asking people to submit a creative idea by email. Then we will send back an AnRep3D-generator with a special (individual) “contest” licence, which is safe as it’s not a company-version. Technically there will be no difference, but it will be limited to “personal” and “non-commercial” usage. Sure, some abuse will happen but would these companies have paid for a licence in the first place?

During the next period the AnRep3D website will be updated. Apart from ordering a company-licence, now it will also be possible to send an original 3D-graph – created with the help of the free demo-version (no registration needed!). A free AnRep3D-generator (coming with examples of input- and output-files and a manual) under a personal “contest” licence will be returned! This technically unlimited generator can be used freely, but cannot be applied in a commercial setting.

You will wonder: what’s in it for AnRep3D? Well, it’s all about the wisdom of the crowd! It is hard to come up with creative ideas for the application of the AnRep3D-generator again and again. Apart from this we will probably not be able to escape from our own tunnel-vision.

For those who cannot wait until everything is explained on the AnRep3D-website, we provide an overview of the steps needed to obtain such a free personal licence for the AnRep3D-generator as explained above:

  • Download the free demo-package.
  • Think of a creative application of this generator.
  • Expertiment with the examples, to get familiar with the demo-set.
  • Prepare a data-set reflecting your creative idea.
  • Generate a 3D-graph (.htm-file).
  • Send the .htm-file by email to info@anrep3d.com mentioning “AnRep3D-contest” in the subject-line. Don’t forget to write that you were authorised to use the data visualised in this 3D-graph by using this sentence: “I only used source-data either owned by me or for which I had the permission to use them”.
  • You remain the owner of the data and the graph, but by submitting you allow AnRep3D to show your graph in public.
  • We will send you a free personal licence of the ful AnRep3D-generator. Your email-address will be stored in our database for one year.

The contest will run until we decide to terminate is. For now no end-date is set. If an end-date is set, it will be communicated a couple of weeks in advance.

To provide you with some examples, three 3D-graphs were created with the help of the free demo-generator. The first one shows the traditional Annual Revenue/Profit, Equity and Total Assets for Volkswagen. Volkswagen finance in 3D

Then another one is on a quarterly level for Amazon. It shows Revenue/Cash Flow from Operations, Current Assets and Current Liabilities. Amazon finance in 3D

The third one is about energy and shows the energy consumption per capita in the United States of America in three categories: renewables (of which the green part is waste and biobased), nuclear and fossil (all expressed in GigaJoules).Energy USA in 3D

Hint: similar graphs can be found in previous posts. There you will be able to see the real 3D-graph (.htm-file) instead of a gif. Of course you can also start immediately, feeding your own data into the free demo-generator.

Follow us on Twitter if you want to know about new posts: @AnRep3D For more information about the AnRep3D-geneator, please have a look at our website. There the free demo-package can be downloaded. It is fully functional, yet limited to one line of data (meaning that only one building will appear, representing one company in a specific year or quarter). With the contest-licence, you will be able to generate a large graph with several companies and years, like the one shown in the screenshot below. Full license 3D graph

For an in-depth explanation, visit out Youtube-channel. There AnRep3D is explained in a couple of short videos.

Take your chance and good luck!

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IPOs in 3D V – ShockWave Medical: a promising one?

Time for a positive one! When I selected some of the IPOs with very high positive or negative returns,  Shockwave Medical showed a stock-price of nearly 90% above the original pricing. Today, checking at IPOScoop again, it is even 130% !

The question is, do we see something different in the quarterly numbers of companies with an (high) positive and negative return, or is it something else “out there” determining these results? The information about the company in general is available here.

Chemist doing research

Photo by geralt on Pixabay

Again, we had to estimate the Q4 2018 number. Dividing the 9-month results from January to September 2018 (available in the Q3 2019) by three, we got an artificial revenue and profit, although the number are very different throughout the quarters. For transparency I provide the links to my sources for Q1, Q2 and Q3 2019

Showing the 3D-graph, a very obvious pattern comes up. The early quarter, before the IPO, shows a negative equity and after the IPO there is suddenly a lot of money. The shape of the building changes dramatically when it comes to the top-view. Revenue and Profit do not always change a lot and it seems its more about the promiss as Shockwave Medical shows huge losses – before and after the IPO.  Data Mining could bring up a predicting value, but it’s good to have some visuals first. That’s why we refer to AnRep3D as “Visual Mining”.ShockWave Medical added to 3D-graph

Double-clicking the screenshot will open the 3D-graph in your browser. For maniputalion of this 3D-graph: Clicking the right mouse-button and moving the mouse up and down at the same time, will zoom the graph in and out. Clicking left while moving the mouse will tilt the graph in different directions. Double clicking in the graph translates it and readjusts the centre at the same time. Just try it – If you don’t know how to get the normal position back, refresh the page in your browser.

Follow us on Twitter if you want to know about new posts: @AnRep3D For more information about the AnRep3D-geneator, please have a look at our website. A free demo can be downloaded there as well.  It is fully functional, yet limited to one line of data (meaning that only one building will appear, representing one company in a specific year or quarter). For an in-depth explanation, visit our Youtube-channel. There AnRep3D is explained in a couple of short videos.

Looking forward to your comments!

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